瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250826

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The methanol port inventory in China is expected to continue to accumulate. The demand for olefin devices is stable, and the industry's operation rate is expected to increase. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2450 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2395 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is 13 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the position of the main contract is 710322 lots, up 35053 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures is -112632 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 10466, down 100 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2275 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2080 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan; the East - Northwest spread is 195 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is -120 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; CFR China Main Port is 265 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 322 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB Rotterdam is 287 euros/ton, unchanged; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia spread is -57 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 2.71 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.02 dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 70.62 tons, up 1.92 tons; in South China ports, it is 36.98 tons, up 3.5 tons; the import profit is 5.65 yuan/ton, down 14.84 yuan; the monthly import volume is 110.27 tons, down 11.75 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises is 310800 tons, up 15200 tons; the methanol enterprise operation rate is 83.91%, up 1.51% [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operation rate is 42.04%, down 0.01%; the dimethyl ether operation rate is 7.02%, down 0.13%; the acetic acid operation rate is 89.01%, down 2.05%; the MTBE operation rate is 63.54%, up 0.15%; the olefin operation rate is 84.59%, up 1.47%; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is -939 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 11.83%, down 0.39%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.94%, up 0.24%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.74%, up 0.15%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.74%, up 0.15% [2] Industry News - As of August 20, the total methanol port inventory in China was 107.60 tons, up 5.42 tons; the inventory in East China and South China increased by 1.92 tons and 3.50 tons respectively; the inventory of sample production enterprises was 31.08 tons, up 1.52 tons, a 5.15% increase; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 20.74 tons, down 1.20 tons, a 5.47% decrease; as of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 85.70%, up 1.45% [2]