瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, the domestic main - producing areas have a low expected opening price for new grain. Large grain - using enterprises' inventories can connect with the new - season corn. Some processing enterprises have stopped purchasing, and the scope is expanding. With potential suppressing factors such as policy - grain rotation and wheat substitution for corn, the market's bullish sentiment has cooled, and the spot - market downward adjustment range has expanded. Overall, corn is in a weak trend, and a bearish approach is recommended [2]. - For corn starch, as previously - overhauled enterprises resume work, the industry's operating rate has increased, leading to greater supply - side pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is in the off - season, with poor order - signing and sales. The supply - exceeds - demand situation is obvious. Corn starch is also in a weak trend, and a bearish approach is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2158 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan; the 1 - 5 monthly spread is 4 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the active contract is 1004013 lots, an increase of 19933 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 120088 lots, a decrease of 22883 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 90070 lots, a decrease of 4270 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 331 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2475 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the 11 - 1 monthly spread is - 6 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the active contract is 210722 lots, an increase of 11388 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 21708 lots, a decrease of 1038 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 7450 lots, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 412.5 cents/bushel, up 0.75 cents; the total position is 1566367 contracts, an increase of 16491 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 105210 contracts, an increase of 27964 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2367.75 yuan/ton, down 0.68 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 1919.84 yuan/ton, down 3.27 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 45 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract is 209.75 yuan/ton, down 4.68 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory price in Changchun is 2660 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Weifang is 2900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Shijiazhuang is 2830 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the main contract is 185 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 336 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan [2]. 3.4 Substitute Spot Prices - The average spot price of wheat is 2431.22 yuan/ton, down 0.39 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 157 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 36 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. 3.5 Upstream Situation - Forecasted annual corn production: In the US, it is 398.93 million tons, a decrease of 2.92 million tons; in Brazil, it is 131 million tons, unchanged; in Argentina, it is 53 million tons, unchanged; in China, it is 295 million tons, unchanged; in Ukraine, it is 30.5 million tons, unchanged [2]. - Forecasted sown area: In the US, it is 35.12 million hectares, a decrease of 0.25 million hectares; in Brazil, it is 22.6 million hectares, unchanged; in Argentina, it is 7.5 million hectares, unchanged; in China, it is 44.3 million hectares, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Industry Situation - Corn inventory: In southern ports, it is 67.1 tons, a decrease of 8 tons; in northern ports, it is 203 tons, a decrease of 44 tons; the inventory of deep - processed corn is 314.7 tons, a decrease of 25.5 tons; the monthly import volume is 6 tons, a decrease of 10 tons [2]. - Corn starch inventory: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 133.9 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons; the monthly export volume is 14.5 tons, a decrease of 13.28 tons [2]. 3.7 Downstream Situation - Feed production: The monthly output is 2937.7 tons, an increase of 175.6 tons; the sample feed corn inventory days are 28.85 days, a decrease of 0.76 days; the deep - processed corn consumption is 113.62 tons, a decrease of 0.44 tons [2]. - Corn starch processing profit: In Shandong, it is - 94 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan; in Hebei, it is - 77 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, it is - 67 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Operating rate: The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 43.57%, an increase of 1.57%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 52.3%, a decrease of 3.6% [2]. 3.8 Option Market - Corn historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.77%, a decrease of 0.1%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.18%, an increase of 0.01% [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for corn is 9.78%, a decrease of 0.11% and 0.13% respectively [2]. 3.9 Industry News - As of August 21, the harvesting progress of Brazil's 2024/2025 second - season corn was 98%, 4 percentage points higher than a week ago, while the harvesting was completed at the same time last year [2]. - Russia's total export volume of wheat, barley, and corn in August is expected to reach 4.7 million tons, a significant increase from 2.9 million tons in July [2]. - The final yield forecast report released by ProFarmer on Friday shows that the total US corn production in 2025 is expected to reach 1.6204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA's August forecast [2].