沪铜产业日报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The copper ore market remains firm, supporting copper prices. Domestic refined copper supply is expected to increase slightly, while downstream demand is currently weak but is expected to improve as the peak season approaches. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may show a slight increase in supply, stable current demand with positive expectations, and industry inventories remaining in the medium - low range. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red bar. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with light positions and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 79,190 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,802.50 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 10 yuan/ton, unchanged. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 175,488 lots, up 64,228 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 1,913 lots, up 1,702 lots. LME copper inventory was 156,350 tons, up 375 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper was 81,698 tons, down 4,663 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant of cathode copper was 22,917 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 79,585 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 79,685 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 57 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 52.50 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 395 yuan/ton, up 690 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 78.38 dollars/ton, up 2.63 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 41.15 dollars/thousand tons, down 3.47 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 69,990 yuan/metal ton, up 290 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 70,690 yuan/metal ton, up 290 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 127 million tons, down 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 55,590 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,200 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 216.94 million tons, down 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 331.5 billion yuan, up 40.434 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 53,579.77 billion yuan, up 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,689,220,700 pieces, up 183,435,300 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 8.11%, up 0.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 9.29%, down 0.21%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 10.5%, down 0.0039. The call - to - put ratio of at - the - money option positions was 1.27, up 0.0973 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium to collect opinions on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment for the "15th Five - Year Plan". Moody's said that the downside risks of the US economy are intensifying, with about one - third of US states in or likely to enter a recession, one - third stagnant, and one - third still expanding, and the probability of the US economy entering a recession in the next 12 months is 49%. The General Administration of Customs said that since the "14th Five - Year Plan", China has added and opened 40 ports, with a total of 311 ports, and the customs has an average annual supervision of 52 billion tons of import and export goods worth 41.5 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Housing and Urban - Rural Development Commission and other 6 departments issued a notice to optimize and adjust real estate policies, including reducing purchase restrictions, adjusting housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [2]