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瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250826
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-26 09:39
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 26, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1160.5, down 3.17%. The market sentiment declined and commodities corrected. In the short - term, there was repeated movement between long and short positions. The inventory at the mine end changed from a decrease to an increase, and the cumulative import growth rate had been declining for 3 consecutive months. The inventory level was moderately high. Technically, the daily K - line was between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it was expected to move in a range [2]. - On August 26, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1681.0, down 2.41%. The mainstream coking enterprises proposed an eighth - round price increase for coke. From January to July 2025, the global crude steel production was 1.0862 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. In terms of fundamentals, the hot metal production was 240.75 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons. The inventory at the coal mine end was no longer under pressure and was transferred downstream, and the total coking coal inventory generally increased. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 23 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line was between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it was expected to move in a range [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1160.50 yuan/ton, down 55.00; the closing price of the J main contract was 1681.00 yuan/ton, down 55.00. The JM futures contract open interest was 908171.00 lots, down 9991.00; the J futures contract open interest was 47638.00 lots, down 1368.00. The net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 114943.00 lots, down 472.00; the net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts was - 5563.00 lots, down 781.00. The JM1 - 9 contract spread was 129.50 yuan/ton, down 24.50; the J1 - 9 contract spread was 71.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00. The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 820.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 948.00 yuan/ton, down 14.00; the price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke was 1775.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot was 150.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Australian imported prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1620.00 yuan/ton, up 120.00; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the JM main contract was 139.50 yuan/ton, up 55.00; the basis of the J main contract was 94.00 yuan/ton, up 55.00 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 25.70 tons, down 0.70; the clean coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants was 294.80 tons, down 2.20. The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.36%, down 0.00; the raw coal output was 38098.70 tons, down 4008.70. The import volume of coal and lignite was 3561.00 tons, up 257.00; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 191.20 tons, up 3.30. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 450.45 tons, up 2.67; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 268.62 tons, down 1.09 [2]. 3.4 National Industry Situation - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises was 966.41 tons, down 10.47; the total inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises was 64.37 tons, up 1.86. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 812.31 tons, up 6.51; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 609.59 tons, down 0.21. The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 13.07 days, up 0.10; the available days of coke for 247 steel mills were 10.76 days, down 0.07. The import volume of coking coal was 962.30 tons, up 53.11; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 89.00 tons, up 38.00. The output of coking coal was 4064.38 tons, down 5.89; the output of coke was 4185.50 tons, up 15.20. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.42%, up 0.08; the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was 23.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 [2]. 3.5 National Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.34%, down 0.23; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.27%, up 0.03. The crude steel output was 7965.82 tons, down 352.58 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On January 25, mainstream coking enterprises proposed an eighth - round price increase for coke, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for dry - quenched coke. According to the oral notice of the environmental protection department in Henan Province, coking enterprises in the province will implement self - restricted production from August 25 to September 3, with a preliminary estimated restriction range of 20 - 35%. Some enterprises have already implemented a 30 - 35% restriction, and other enterprises will gradually follow. Zheng Shanjie, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, chaired a symposium to listen to opinions and suggestions on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment during the 15th Five - Year Plan period. Shanghai optimized and adjusted real estate policies, including unrestricted housing purchases outside the outer ring for eligible resident families, and adult single individuals are subject to the same housing purchase restriction policy as resident families. Eligible non - local resident families are temporarily exempt from property tax for their first - purchased housing [2].