瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250826

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the I2601 contract decreased with reduced positions. Macroscopically, during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the customs annually supervised 520 million tons of import and export goods with a value of 41.5 trillion yuan, ranking first globally. In general, the high - level operation of molten iron supports the iron ore price, but as market sentiment weakens, the decline in steel prices drags down the iron ore price. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward, and the red column is shrinking. Operationally, short - term trading is recommended, with attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 776.50 yuan/ton, down 10.50 yuan; the position volume was 452,852 lots, down 11,978 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 20.5 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 5,873 lots, down 9,565 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt was 2,000 lots, unchanged. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 102.35 US dollars/ton, down 0.91 US dollars [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 842 yuan/dry ton, down 8 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore was 827 yuan/dry ton, down 8 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 720 yuan/dry ton, down 5 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 51 yuan, up 3 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 103.00 US dollars/ton, up 2.65 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.42, up 0.05. The estimated import cost was 844 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume (weekly) was 3,315.80 million tons, down 90.80 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,462.30 million tons, down 240.80 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,444.20 million tons, up 62.63 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,065.47 million tons, down 70.93 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,462.00 million tons, down 133.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 18 days, down 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.79 million tons, down 1.39 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 62.96%, down 2.02%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 32.95 million tons, down 1.65 million tons. The BDI index was 1,944.00, unchanged. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.66 US dollars/ton, up 0.40 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.01 US dollars/ton, up 0.87 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.34%, down 0.23%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.27%, up 0.03%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,966 million tons, down 353 million tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.01%, down 0.22%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 20.20%, up 0.34%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 18.72%, up 0.31%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 18.20%, down 1.47% [2] Industry News - From August 18th to August 24th, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3,315.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 90.8 million tons. The shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,760.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.4 million tons. From August 18th to August 24th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,462.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 240.8 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,393.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 83.3 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,153.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 99.5 million tons [2]