Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The inventory of old - season apples is low, which still supports prices. However, the increasing supply of early - season apples with uneven quality restricts price increases, resulting in a range - bound market. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to the coloring and listing of early - season apples [2]. 3) Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple futures contract is 8124 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 72112 lots, a decrease of 5542 lots compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 588 lots [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples is 19.87%, with a 0.59% increase [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged 75 and above, paper - bagged 70 and above semi - commodities) are 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output is 5128.51 million tons, and the weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.66 yuan/kg, with a 0.02 yuan increase. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.5 yuan/kg [2]. - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 39.45 million tons, a decrease of 6.56 million tons compared to the previous week. The storage capacity ratios of Shandong and Shaanxi apples are 0.07 and 0.01 respectively [2]. - The monthly export volume of apples is 50,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly export value of apples is 6328.4 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits, and nuts is 1742602 million US dollars, a decrease of 212886 million US dollars [2]. - The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0.4 yuan/jin [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale prices of mandarins, bananas, and watermelons are 9.76 yuan/kg, 5.75 yuan/kg, and 3.54 yuan/kg respectively, with decreases of 0.35 yuan/kg, 0.13 yuan/kg, and 0.04 yuan/kg [2]. - The early - morning average daily arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Guangdong Xiaqiao, and Guangdong Chalong fruit wholesale markets is 11.4, 4.8, and 14.4 respectively, with an increase of 3.8 and 7.2 at the Jiangmen and Chalong markets [2]. Industry News - In the western producing areas, the trading of Gala apples is in the later stage, with uneven quality of the remaining goods, few high - quality goods, chaotic prices, and price determined by quality [2]. - The market of Shandong cold - storage Red Fuji apples is under pressure, with slow sales and a prominent sense of urgency to sell in cold - storage. The prices of early - season apples in Shandong fluctuate slightly depending on the supply volume [2]. - On Tuesday, the Apple 2510 contract closed down 0.23%. According to preliminary estimates by Mysteel based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple output in the new season is expected to be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season [2].
苹果产业日报-20250826
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-26 09:35