瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20250826

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - V2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 4999 yuan/ton. This week, the restart of maintenance devices is expected to increase production and capacity utilization, while more PVC production plans in August will add long - term supply pressure. Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak real estate market drags down domestic demand, and the Indian anti - dumping policy will exacerbate the supply - demand contradiction and put pressure on prices. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4900 and the pressure around 5100 [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4999 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton; the trading volume was 736,194 lots, a decrease of 351,932 lots; the open interest was 1,057,318 lots, an increase of 49,158 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 853,070 lots, an increase of 1,523 lots; the short position was 934,697 lots, an increase of 19,110 lots; the net long position was - 81,627 lots, a decrease of 17,587 lots [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5040 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4790.77 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.46 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4985 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4891.88 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.38 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 725 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 229 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2573.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.33 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, it was 2398 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 521 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 181 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 77.61%, a decrease of 2.72%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 76.81%, a decrease of 3.15%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 79.59%, a decrease of 1.67%. The total social inventory of PVC was 508,000 tons, an increase of 15,200 tons. The total inventory in the East China region was 450,200 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons; the total inventory in the South China region was 57,800 tons, an increase of 200 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.34, a decrease of 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.38731 billion square meters, an increase of 54.0957 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 281.0593 billion yuan, an increase of 36.3043 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 12.24%, a decrease of 0.28%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 21.67%, a decrease of 0.12%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.2%, a decrease of 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.21%, a decrease of 0.01% [3] 3.7 Industry News - On August 26, the market price of PVCSG5 in Shanghai, Changzhou, and Hangzhou was 0 - 20 yuan/ton higher than the previous day, ranging from 4740 to 4840 yuan/ton. From August 16 to August 22, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a decrease of 2.72% from the previous period. As of August 21, PVC social inventory increased by 5.09% to 852,700 tons month - on - month and decreased by 6.50% year - on - year [3]