国债期货日报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On August 26, 2025, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds strengthened collectively, and treasury bond futures also strengthened. The domestic fundamental data showed some weaknesses, while overseas, the market bet on the Fed's interest - rate cut in September. As bond yields approach the high point in mid - March this year, the allocation value has significantly increased, and the sensitivity of the bond market to external factors may decrease marginally. If the capital and fundamental fluctuations are limited, the suppression of the bond market by the strengthening of the equity market is expected to be limited, and the bond market pricing is expected to gradually return to the rational range dominated by fundamentals. However, the interest - rate center lacks the motivation to decline further. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading opportunities brought by the phased repair of treasury bond futures [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.06%, 0.04%, 0.01%, and 0.47% respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, and TS main contracts increased by 7896, 15736, and 12209 respectively, while the trading volume of TL main contract decreased by 5603 [2]. 3.2 Futures Spreads - Multiple futures spreads showed changes, such as the TL2512 - 2509 spread increasing by 0.12 to - 0.39, and the T12 - TL12 spread decreasing by 0.53 to - 8.85 [2]. 3.3 Futures Positions - The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts all increased, by 2635, 1227, 1543, and 1901 respectively. The net short positions of T and TL top 20 increased, while those of TF and TS top 20 decreased [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - The clean prices of multiple bonds increased, such as 220025.IB increasing by 0.0703 to 107.302, and 220017.IB increasing by 0.0315 to 99.0955 [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bond Yields - The yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active treasury bonds decreased by 1.25bp, 0.50bp, 1.75bp, 2.50bp, and 2.15bp respectively [2]. 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight interest rate increased by 3.44bp to 1.3644%, while Shibor overnight decreased by 3.90bp to 1.3170%. Other short - term interest rates also showed different changes [2]. 3.7 LPR Rates - The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 405.8 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 580.3 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase, with a net withdrawal of 174.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.9 Industry News - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority launched the optimization arrangement for offshore RMB bond repurchase business. Shanghai optimized real - estate policies. The National Development and Reform Commission held a corporate symposium to listen to opinions on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment [2]. 3.10 Key Points of Attention - On August 28 at 17:00, the Eurozone's industrial sentiment index for August will be released. On August 29 at 20:30, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index for July will be released [3].