瑞达期货集运指数（欧线）期货日报-20250826

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2510 closed down 2.76%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1990.20, down 55.31 points from last week, a 8.7% month - on - month decrease. The continuous decline of spot indicators is expected to drive down futures prices. - Leading shipping companies have launched a "price war" to compete for off - season cargo volume, and market expectations have turned cold. - US President Trump's plan to impose tariffs on steel, chips, and semiconductors has increased the uncertainty of global trade, and the market's expectation of a resurgence of trade conflicts has risen. - The Fed's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged last month was widely supported, and there are differences among Fed officials on interest rate cuts. The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has weakened. - The GDP growth rate of the eurozone in Q2 2025 slightly exceeded market expectations, and the service and manufacturing industries are gradually recovering. - Overall, there is still uncertainty in the trade war, the demand expectation for the container shipping index (European line) is weak, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1318.900, down 37.4; EC secondary main contract closing price: 1643.9, down 47.1. - EC2510 - EC2512 spread: +13.70; EC2510 - EC2602 spread: - 150.40, down 11.50. - EC contract basis: +39.10, 671.30. - EC main contract open interest: 54409, up 52 [1]. Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1990.20, down 189.97; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly): 1041.38, down 64.91. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1415.36, down 44.83; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1174.87, down 18.47; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1757.74, down 32.73. - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1944.00, down 51.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1770.00, down 51.00. - Average charter price (Panamax): 14120.00, up 213.00; average charter price (Capesize): 22168.00, up 2391.00 [1]. Industry News - The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, targeting products entering the US market after August 27, 2025 [1]. - The US has included minerals such as copper and potash in the 2025 critical minerals list, and the draft list is open for public comment for 30 days [1]. - Large investment banks such as Barclays, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Bank expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Macquarie and Deutsche Bank have revised their expectations and expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and December respectively [1]. Key Data to Watch - August 27, 09:30: China's year - to - date profit rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in July - August 27, 14:00: Germany's Gfk consumer confidence index for September - August 27, 18:00: UK's CBI retail sales difference for August [1]