农产品早报-20250826

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is from the Agricultural Products Team of the Research Center, dated August 26, 2025 [3] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, in corn, prices in Changchun remained 2230, while in other regions like Weifang and Jinzhou, there were fluctuations. The basis changed by 41, trade profit decreased by 20, and import profit decreased by 4. In starch, prices in Heilongjiang remained 2850, while in Weifang it decreased by 50. The basis increased by 17, and processing profit increased by 22 [4] Market Analysis - Short - term: New - season corn is about to be listed, market sentiment is cautious, and port spot prices are weakening, causing the futures price to decline. But due to limited supply increase, there is no expectation of a sharp drop. Starch prices follow raw material price fluctuations, with high production, low downstream demand, and rising inventory, pressuring prices. - Long - term: Corn prices are expected to decline due to increased production and lower costs. Starch prices are bearish due to high inventory and expected lower raw material costs [5] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming had little change, the basis decreased by 18, and the import profit increased by 33. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 170 [6][24] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, putting pressure on international sugar prices. The uncertainty of Brazil's later - stage production increases. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar follows raw sugar. Imported sugar is arriving at ports, and the processing sugar price cut is putting pressure on the futures [7][24] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 80, the price of imported M - grade US cotton increased by 1, the import profit and other data also changed. For cotton yarn, the price of Vietnamese yarn remained stable, the spot price increased by 20, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 59, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 64 [10] Market Analysis - Cotton has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. If there are no major macro - risk events, the April low can be seen as the long - term bottom, and the downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [10] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, egg prices in Hebei, Liaoning, and other regions decreased, the basis increased by 10, the price of white - feather broilers remained stable, the price of yellow - feather broilers increased by 0.20, and the price of live pigs increased by 0.01 [14] Market Analysis - In July, high temperatures reduced egg - laying rates, and post - plum - rain replenishment drove up egg prices. But due to sufficient stocks in food factories and reduced procurement, the Mid - Autumn Festival demand was weakened. In August, supply was high and demand was low, causing prices to fall. Attention should be paid to the culling of old hens and cold - storage egg release [14] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained 7300.00, the national inventory decreased by 36.00, Shandong inventory decreased by 24.00, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 47.00. The basis for different contracts also changed [21][22] Market Analysis - The new - season apples are in the growth stage. The yield in the western region may increase, while Shandong may have a 20% reduction. The current - season apple consumption is in the off - season, with the lowest apparent inventory in five years and slightly slower de - stocking. The price is stable for now. Attention should be paid to the final yield determination [22] Group 7: Live Pigs Price Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, and other regions had minor changes, and the basis decreased by 70 [22] Market Analysis - There are policy expectations for a production - capacity turning point in the long - term, but medium - term supply pressure remains. Seasonally, there are factors supporting demand. The spot price rebounded at the weekend. There is an expectation of reduced supply at the end of the month, and consumption may improve with school - opening replenishment. The restart of state reserves is boosting market sentiment. Attention should be paid to factors such as slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [22]