芳烃橡胶早报-20250826

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with an increase in unexpected maintenance, continuous recovery of polyester开工 and relatively healthy inventory, there is still room for load - up. The supply of raw material PX is gradually returning, and the near - term supply - demand pattern of TA is expected to continue to improve. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees at low prices and the restart progress of Hengli Huizhou [2][3][7] - For MEG, the near - term domestic oil - based restart and a slight decline in coal - based开工 lead to an overall increase in load. With a decline in arrivals and stable shipments during the week, port inventory is decreasing. The downstream stocking level is stable, the basis is strongly maintained, and the profit - to - price ratio is basically stable month - on - month. In the future, although the EG开工 has risen to a relatively high level, port inventory is expected to remain low in the short term due to fewer arrivals. The pattern is good and the profit is not low. In the far - month, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation with the return of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, but the valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, and it should be regarded as a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun [7] - For polyester staple fiber, the开工 of near - end Chuzhou Xingbang and Ningbo Zhuocheng has increased slightly to 91.9%, the production and sales are basically stable, and the inventory has decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the开工 of polyester yarn has increased, raw material stocking has increased, and finished product inventory has continued to decrease, but the profit is weak. In the future, as the inventory reduction speed of polyester yarn finished products has accelerated, the stocking demand has emerged. The开工 of staple fiber remains high but has not increased significantly. With the continuation of inventory reduction, attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees at low prices [7] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradiction is that the national explicit inventory is stable, the absolute level is not high, but there is no seasonal inventory reduction, and the price of Thai cup rubber has rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [7] Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Index Changes: From August 19 to August 25, 2025, crude oil rose from 65.8 to 68.8, PTA internal spot goods rose from 4690 to 4850, and PTA processing difference rose from 128 to 175. The daily average transaction basis of PTA spot is 2509(+22). The new 1.6 - million - ton line of Sanfangxiang's new device has been put into production [2] - Market Situation: With an increase in unexpected near - end TA maintenance, the开工 has decreased significantly. The polyester load has continued to increase, the inventory has decreased month - on - month, the basis has strengthened slightly, and the spot processing fee has improved. The domestic PX开工 has increased slightly [2] MEG - Price and Index Changes: From August 19 to August 25, 2025, the price of MEG external disk rose from 523 to 534, the price of MEG internal disk rose from 4458 to 4542, and the coal - based MEG profit rose from 372 to 463. The basis of MEG spot is around 09(+95) [7] - Device Changes: Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton device has restarted, and Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton device has been under maintenance [7] Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: From August 19 to August 25, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber rose from 6555 to 6675, and the short - fiber profit rose from 35 to - 14. The spot price is around 6600, and the market basis is around 10 - 130 [7] - Market Situation: The开工 of near - end Chuzhou Xingbang and Ningbo Zhuocheng has increased slightly to 91.9%, the production and sales are basically stable, and the inventory has decreased month - on - month. The downstream polyester yarn end has seen an increase in开工, an increase in raw material stocking, and a continuous decrease in finished product inventory, but the profit is weak [7] Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - Price and Index Changes: From August 19 to August 25, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot remained at 1790, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 14680 to 14470. The weekly change of RU main contract was 85, and the weekly change of NR main contract was 135 [7] - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory is stable, the absolute level is not high, but there is no seasonal inventory reduction. The price of Thai cup rubber has rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping [7] Styrene - Price and Index Changes: From August 19 to August 25, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 830, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) rose from 747 to 751, and the price of styrene (CFR China) rose from 890 to 905. The daily change of EPS (East China ordinary material) was 150, and the daily change of styrene domestic profit was 0 [9]