Report Information - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: August 26, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - For methanol, port inventory has significantly accumulated, imports are high, and the current inventory is high. The supply in the inland area is expected to return, and the traditional demand will enter the peak season later. Attention should be paid to whether the demand can support after the inland supply returns. If the inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol is expected to see a valuation correction [2] - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year-on-year. The upstream of the two major oil companies has accumulated inventory, while the coal chemical industry has reduced inventory. The downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The basis of 09 contract is around -150 in North China and -100 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around -100, with no further increase for the time being. The price of non-standard HD injection molding is stable, other price spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in August has decreased month-on-month, and the domestic linear production has increased month-on-month. Attention should be paid to the LL-HD conversion situation and the US quotation. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is significant, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices [5] - For polypropylene, the upstream of the two major oil companies has accumulated inventory, while the middle stream has reduced inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is -60, the non-standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around -800. Exports have been performing well this year. The non-standard price spread is neutral. The markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around -200, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start-up is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month-on-month. The current downstream orders are average, and the inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Under the background of overcapacity, the pressure on the 09 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase significantly or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [5] - For PVC, the basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory pickup basis is -480. The downstream start-up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory of the middle and upstream has been continuously accumulating. The northwest devices are seasonally under maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability in Q4. The recent export orders have slightly declined. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi-coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter-offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether the subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is -100. Currently, the contradiction in static inventory is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start-up [5] Summary by Product Methanol - Price and Inventory Data: From August 19 to August 25, 2025, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801. The prices of Jiangsu and South China spot increased by 5, and the price of Lunan converted to the futures price increased by 15. The port inventory has significantly accumulated, imports are high, and the current inventory is high. The supply in the inland area is expected to return [2] - Viewpoint: Attention should be paid to whether the demand can support after the inland supply returns. If the inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol is expected to see a valuation correction [2] Polyethylene - Price and Inventory Data: From August 19 to August 25, 2025, the price of Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 830. The prices of North China LL and East China LL increased by 20 and 10 respectively, and the price of East China LD increased by 75. The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year-on-year, the upstream of the two major oil companies has accumulated inventory, while the coal chemical industry has reduced inventory. The downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral [5] - Viewpoint: The overall inventory is neutral. The basis of 09 contract is around -150 in North China and -100 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around -100, with no further increase for the time being. The price of non-standard HD injection molding is stable, other price spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in August has decreased month-on-month, and the domestic linear production has increased month-on-month. Attention should be paid to the LL-HD conversion situation and the US quotation. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is significant, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices [5] Polypropylene - Price and Inventory Data: From August 19 to August 25, 2025, the price of Shandong propylene decreased by 80, and the price of East China PP increased by 20. The upstream of the two major oil companies has accumulated inventory, while the middle stream has reduced inventory [5] - Viewpoint: In terms of valuation, the basis is -60, the non-standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around -800. Exports have been performing well this year. The non-standard price spread is neutral. The markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around -200, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start-up is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month-on-month. The current downstream orders are average, and the inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Under the background of overcapacity, the pressure on the 09 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase significantly or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [5] PVC - Price and Inventory Data: From August 19 to August 25, 2025, the price of Northwest calcium carbide increased by 50, and the price of Shandong caustic soda increased by 10. The price of calcium carbide method in East China increased by 30. The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory pickup basis is -480. The downstream start-up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory of the middle and upstream has been continuously accumulating [5] - Viewpoint: The northwest devices are seasonally under maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability in Q4. The recent export orders have slightly declined. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi-coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter-offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether the subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is -100. Currently, the contradiction in static inventory is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start-up [5]
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250826
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-08-26 14:55