芳烃橡胶早报-20250827

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report PTA - TA's unexpected maintenance has increased, polyester's operation continues to recover, and there is still room to increase the load with relatively healthy inventory. The supply of raw material PX will gradually return, and the short - term supply - demand pattern of TA is expected to continue to improve. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand processing fees at low prices and the restart progress of Hengli Huizhou [1]. MEG - In the short term, the domestic oil - based production restarts, the coal - based operation declines slightly, and the overall load recovers. The port inventory decreases due to the decline in arrivals and stable shipments. The downstream inventory level remains stable, the basis is strong, and the profit ratio remains basically stable. In the future, EG's operation will rise to a relatively high level, and the port inventory is expected to remain low due to the short - term low arrivals. The pattern is good and the profit is not low. The far - month is expected to accumulate inventory with the return of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, but the valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, and it is regarded as a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Recently, the operation of Chuzhou Xingbang and Ningbo Zhuocheng has increased, and the operation rate has slightly increased to 91.9%. The production and sales are basically stable, and the inventory has decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the operation of the polyester yarn end has increased, the raw material inventory has increased, and the finished product inventory has continued to decrease, but the profit is weak. In the future, as the inventory reduction speed of the polyester yarn end has accelerated, the inventory demand has emerged. The operation of staple fiber remains high but does not increase significantly. With the continuation of inventory reduction, attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand processing fees at low prices [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory remains stable, the absolute level is not high, but there is no seasonal inventory reduction, and the price of Thai cup rubber has rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Index Changes: From August 20 to 26, 2025, the prices of naphtha, PX CFR, PTA domestic spot, etc. have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of naphtha has increased from 66.8 to 68.8, and the PTA processing difference has also changed [1]. - Device Changes: Sanfangxiang's new device's other 1.6 million - ton production line has started production, and Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton device has been under maintenance [1]. MEG - Price and Index Changes: From August 20 to 26, 2025, the prices of Northeast Asian ethylene, MEG outer - disk price, etc. have changed. For example, the MEG outer - disk price has increased from 526 to 536, and the MEG coal - based profit has increased from 421 to 474 [2]. - Device Changes: Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton device has restarted, and Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton device has been under maintenance [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: From August 20 to 26, 2025, the prices of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber, low - melting - point staple fiber, etc. have changed. For example, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber has increased from 6555 to 6680, and the short - fiber profit has changed from 19 to - 10 [2]. - Device and Operation Changes: Recently, the operation of Chuzhou Xingbang and Ningbo Zhuocheng has increased, and the operation rate has slightly increased to 91.9% [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - Price and Index Changes: From August 20 to 26, 2025, the prices of US - dollar Thai standard spot, US - dollar Thai mixed spot, etc. have changed. For example, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot has increased from 1795 to 1830, and the RU main contract price has increased from 15675 to 15885 [3]. - Inventory and Spread Changes: The national explicit inventory remains stable, and the spreads such as the difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract have changed [3]. Styrene - Price and Index Changes: From August 20 to 26, 2025, the prices of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia), pure benzene (CFR China), etc. have changed. For example, the price of ethylene has increased from 830 to 840, and the EPS (East China ordinary material) profit has increased from 75 to 275 [6].