Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating provided in the report. Report's Core View The impact of the coking coal event is gradually weakening, and the market has weakened again. Fundamentally, the weekly production has rebounded significantly, and the inventory continues to accumulate, with obvious oversupply under the current weekly production. In the medium term, after the photovoltaic installation rush in the second quarter, the growth of photovoltaic glass production capacity has slowed down, and the float glass production capacity has remained flat. The future supply - demand of soda ash still faces pressure, and there is no growth expectation for overall demand. For glass, the mid - stream's continuous shipment has pressured the spot price, and the market's negative feedback continues. It is recommended to hold short positions in soda ash and consider taking profit on high - level short positions in glass and waiting for new logical drivers [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Price and Spread: Glass and soda ash spot prices in most regions remained unchanged, while futures prices declined. For example, glass 2505 dropped 1.09% and soda ash 2505 fell 1.15% [1]. - Supply: The soda ash weekly production increased by 1.33% to 77.14 million tons, and the soda ash start - up rate rose to 88.48%. The float glass daily melting volume and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - Inventory: Soda ash factory inventory and delivery warehouse inventory increased, with the delivery warehouse inventory rising by 6.37%. Glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [1]. - Real Estate Data: Real estate new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area all showed different degrees of decline compared to the previous period [1]. Group 2: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating provided in the report. Report's Core View The log futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday. The current main contract has switched to the 2511 contract, and the market valuation fluctuates around the delivery cost and receiving value range. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in the future. The demand remains firm at the 60,000 - cubic - meter level, and the inventory continues to decline. It is expected that the September shipment will be similar to that in August. The futures price may fluctuate in the range of 800 - 850. It is recommended to mainly go long on the 01 contract at low prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Futures and Spot Prices: The 2511 log contract closed at 823 yuan per cubic meter, up 3 yuan. The spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged, and the new round of foreign market quotes remained at 116 US dollars per JAS cubic meter [2]. - Supply and Demand: The inventory continued to decline last week, with the national coniferous log total inventory at 3.05 million cubic meters as of August 22. The demand increased slightly, with the daily average log outbound volume at 64,500 cubic meters. The number of expected arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 12 Chinese ports increased, with the arrival volume about 440,000 cubic meters [2]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating provided in the report. Report's Core View From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will increase during the dry season, which will raise the cost center of industrial silicon. Although the current production of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. In August, the supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long term, the supply pressure will be reduced. It is recommended to mainly try to go long at low prices [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Price and Spread: Spot prices of industrial silicon in various regions remained unchanged, while the basis increased. For example, the basis of East China's oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon increased by 23.70% [3]. - Production and Start - up Rate: The national industrial silicon production increased by 3.23% to 338,300 tons, and the national start - up rate rose to 52.61%. However, the production and start - up rate in Xinjiang decreased, while those in Yunnan and Sichuan increased significantly [3]. - Inventory: The inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased slightly, while the social inventory decreased slightly by 0.37% [3]. Group 4: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating provided in the report. Report's Core View In August, the supply and demand of polysilicon both increased, but the supply growth rate was relatively large, and there was still pressure on inventory accumulation. Due to the previous sharp price increase above the full - cost level and the addition of two new delivery brands by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, it is expected that the number of warehouse receipts will further increase. The price will mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan per ton and the upper limit at 58,000 - 60,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to mainly try to go long at low prices and consider buying put options to try short at high prices when the volatility is low [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Price and Spread: Spot prices of polysilicon and related products remained mostly unchanged, while the futures price of the main contract dropped 1.15%. The month - to - month spreads showed different degrees of change [4]. - Supply and Demand: The weekly and monthly polysilicon production increased, and the monthly polysilicon import volume increased by 47.48%, while the export volume decreased slightly. The silicon wafer production showed different trends in weekly and monthly data, and the demand increased slightly [4]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory increased by 2.89%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 12.07% [4]. Group 5: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating provided in the report. Report's Core View Both internal and external rubber - producing areas are facing continuous rainy weather, resulting in lower - than - expected upstream supply and high raw material prices. In terms of demand, agents' purchase volume may still increase slightly at the end of the month, and downstream procurement is mainly for regular replenishment. The trading in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region may slow down, and some mining and engineering operations in other regions may be suspended, which has a negative impact on the overall replacement demand. Affected by the Fed's dovish stance, the market sentiment is positive, driving up the rubber price, but the trading atmosphere in the spot market has cooled down, and tire factories are cautious about purchasing high - priced raw materials. It is expected that the rubber price will mainly fluctuate in a range, with the 01 contract ranging from 15,000 - 16,500. Pay attention to the raw material supply situation during the peak production season in the main producing areas and consider shorting at high prices if the raw material supply is smooth [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Price and Spread: The spot price of domestic full - latex rubber increased by 0.67%, and the basis increased. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.34%. The month - to - month spreads also changed, such as the 9 - 1 spread increasing by 1.00% [5]. - Production and Consumption: Thailand, India, and China's rubber production in June increased to different degrees, while the current - month production decreased. The start - up rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in July decreased by 8.16%, while the tire export volume increased by 10.51% [5]. - Inventory: The bonded area inventory and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in different trade modes in Qingdao also changed [5].
《特殊商品》日报-20250827
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-08-27 01:49