建信期货工业硅日报-20250827

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing, maintaining a loose balance, and the improvement of the fundamentals is limited. The spot price remains stable, while the futures price fluctuates within a downward channel [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The futures price of industrial silicon opened high and closed low. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.85%. The trading volume was 450,290 lots, and the open interest was 281,839 lots, with a net decrease of 7,286 lots [4]. - Spot Price: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of 553-grade in Sichuan was 8,950 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 8,600 yuan/ton. The price of 421-grade in Inner Mongolia was 9,600 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,300 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,900 yuan/ton [4]. - Future Outlook: The weekly output of industrial silicon in the third week of August increased to 88,100 tons, and the monthly output exceeded 370,000 tons. On the demand side, the production schedule of polysilicon in August will increase to 125,000 tons, while the demand from organic silicon and aluminum alloy remained stable. The export volume in July increased slightly to 70,000 tons. The supply and demand are both increasing, maintaining a loose balance. Without policies to drive the industry, the spot price will remain stable, and the futures price will fluctuate within a downward channel [4]. 3.2 Market News - On August 26, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,822 lots, a net decrease of 116 lots compared to the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, China's export of metallic silicon in July 2025 was 74,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 8.32% and a year-on-year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, the total export of metallic silicon was 414,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04% [5]. - As of August 22, many photovoltaic listed companies, including LONGi Green Energy, Tongwei Co., Ltd., and Trina Solar, released their semi - annual reports. Some photovoltaic module manufacturers showed signs of improved performance, achieving loss reduction or turning losses into profits in the first half of the year. The entire industry may maintain a state of low - load production and low gross profit margins. In addition, promoting "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry requires attention not only to the manufacturing end but also to the asset end [5]. - From January to July 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics reached 1,109.6 GW, and the newly installed capacity was 223.25 GW. The newly installed capacity in July was 11 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5].