建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250827

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Futures opened higher and fluctuated, supporting market sentiment. Some traders raised prices, and downstream enterprises replenished stocks according to orders. Despite short - term supply surplus, demand is transitioning to the peak season, and downstream overall operating rates are expected to rise. With policy attention on chemical over - capacity and weekend macro - positive news, polyolefins are expected to oscillate strongly [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Plastic Futures: L2601 opened higher, rose first and then fell, closing at 7402 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.12%), with 250,000 lots traded and positions increasing by 13,732 to 407,610 lots. PP2601 closed at 7046 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (-0.30%), with positions increasing by 5561 to 474,300 lots [3][4]. - Market Situation: A new 450,000 - tonne unit in Ningbo Daxie Phase II is planned to be put into operation at the end of August, and another 450,000 - tonne unit in September. Although supply surplus persists in the short - term, demand is moving towards the peak season [4]. 3.2 Industry News - Inventory: On August 26, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 730,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (-2.67%) from the previous working day, compared with 760,000 tons in the same period last year [5]. - PE Market: PE market prices were strong. LLDPE prices in North China were 7250 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton, and in South China 7450 - 7800 yuan/ton [5]. - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 6450 - 6490 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Downstream demand improved, and production enterprises mainly maintained stable prices [5]. - PP Market: The domestic PP market was mostly stable, with price adjustments ranging from 10 - 30 yuan/ton. Upstream producers' prices were mostly stable, and downstream procurement was mainly for low - price rigid needs [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][13][15]