铁矿石产业期现日报-20250827

Group 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is predicted to decline from its high level. There are signs of a bottom - up rebound in demand data, and there is an expectation of increased demand during the peak season from September to October [1]. Summary by Catalog - Prices and Spreads: The prices of various steel products, including rebar and hot - rolled coils, have generally declined. The spreads between different contracts and regions also show certain changes. For example, the rebar 10 - 1 spread declined, while the hot - rolled coil 10 - 1 spread strengthened [1]. - Cost and Profit: The prices of billets decreased, and the costs and profits of different steel - making processes and regions also changed. For instance, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 38 [1]. - Production: The daily average hot - metal output slightly increased by 0.1 to 240.8. The production of the five major steel products increased by 0.7% to 878.1, with rebar production decreasing by 2.6% and hot - rolled coil production increasing by 3.1% [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 1.8% to 1441.0, the rebar inventory increased by 3.4% to 607.0, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 1.1% to 361.4 [1]. - Trading and Demand: The building materials trading volume increased by 18.3% to 11.1, and the apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 2.6% to 853.0. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also increased [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The iron ore futures market is expected to have a rebound basis, but the current fundamentals lack a strong upward - driving force. It is recommended to buy on dips and engage in the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [3]. Summary by Catalog - Prices and Spreads: The warehouse - receipt costs and spot prices of various iron ore varieties decreased, while the basis of the 01 contract for some varieties increased significantly. The spreads between different contracts also changed [3]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 2.7% to 3315.8, and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 3.4% to 2393.3. However, the subsequent arrival average is expected to increase [3]. - Demand: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was slightly up at 240.8, and the average daily port clearance volume decreased by 2.7% to 325.7. The monthly national pig iron and crude steel production decreased [3]. - Inventory: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.3% to 13798.68, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.8% to 9065.5, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.8% to 20.0 [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View For coke, it is recommended to buy on dips for the 2601 contract and engage in the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage. For coking coal, the same strategy is recommended [6]. Summary by Catalog Coke - Prices and Spreads: The prices of coke contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also changed. The coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 [6]. - Supply: Due to the successful price increase, the coking profit improved, and the coking enterprise's operation rate increased slightly [6]. - Demand: The blast - furnace hot - metal output fluctuated at a high level, but it is expected to decline slightly in August due to the Tangshan production limit [6]. - Inventory: The coking plant's inventory started to accumulate, the port inventory slightly decreased, and the steel mill's inventory decreased. The overall inventory was at a medium level [6]. Coking Coal - Prices and Spreads: The prices of coking coal contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads between different contracts changed. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 5 [6]. - Supply: The coal mine's operation rate increased month - on - month, but the import coal price followed the futures down, and the downstream's restocking was cautious [6]. - Demand: The coking operation rate increased slightly, the downstream blast - furnace hot - metal output fluctuated at a high level, and the restocking demand slowed down. The hot - metal output is expected to decline at the end of August [6]. - Inventory: The coal mine, port, and steel mill's inventory increased slightly, while the coal - washing plant and coking plant's inventory decreased. The overall inventory decreased slightly [6].