《农产品》日报-20250827

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found. Core Views of the Reports 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Futures may have an upward trend due to limited production growth and expected lower - than - estimated month - end inventory. Long - term view is cautiously bullish for Malaysian palm oil and oscillatingly bullish for domestic palm oil [2]. - Soybean oil: Affected by US biodiesel policy with uncertainties. CBOT soybean oil shows range - bound adjustment. Domestic spot basis quotes may be supported, and there is potential for basis quotes to rise if factory inventories decrease [2]. 2. Corn and Corn Starch - Short - term: Supply and demand are both weak, with the market in a weak and oscillating state. Spring corn listing, old - grain selling, and import auctions increase supply, while demand is sluggish [4]. - Medium - term: New - season corn cost is lower, and with good growth, supply pressure in the fourth quarter is significant, and the market value may move towards the new - season cost [4]. 3. Sugar - International: Raw sugar is suppressed by expected supply increase but has a risk of production downward revision in Brazil. It is expected to trade in the 15 - 17 cents/lb range in the short term [8]. - Domestic: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain oscillatingly weak as the supply is becoming more abundant despite some digestion of import increase expectations [8]. 4. Live Hogs - Spot prices are stable with a slight downward trend. Suggest waiting and watching. If there is room to reduce the slaughter weight, there may be support for the far - month contract, and small - scale long positions in the far - month 01 contract can be considered below 14,000 [9]. 5. Cotton - Short - term: Domestic cotton prices may trade in a range as old - crop inventory is tight and the issuance of sliding - scale tariffs is lower than expected. - Long - term: New - season cotton production is expected to increase steadily, putting pressure on prices after new cotton hits the market [11]. 6. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to remain bearish due to sufficient supply and slow downstream digestion [14]. 7. Meal - The decline space of domestic meal is limited as the cost side provides good support. The global soybean supply in the fourth quarter is not abundant, and the cost support for domestic meal is still strong [17]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - Soybean oil: On August 26, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,740 yuan, the futures price of Y2601 was 8,536 yuan, and the basis was 204 yuan. The spot basis quote in Jiangsu in August was 01 + 220 [2]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong on August 26 was 9,470 yuan, down 1.56% from the previous day. The futures price of P2601 was 9,424 yuan, down 0.67%. The basis was 46 yuan, down 65.15%. The import cost and profit in Guangzhou Port in January showed a decline [2]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu on August 26 was 10,020 yuan, up 0.40%. The futures price of OI601 was 9,941 yuan, down 0.57%. The basis was 79 yuan, up 538.89% [2]. - Spreads: Soybean oil 09 - 01 spread increased by 66.67%, palm oil 09 - 01 spread increased by 19.15%, and rapeseed oil 09 - 01 spread increased by 12.15%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread increased by 17.05% [2]. 2. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: On August 26, the price of corn 2511 at Jinzhou Port was 2,158 - 2,260 yuan, the basis was 102 yuan, and the 11 - 3 spread was - 24 yuan. Import cost decreased, and import profit increased slightly [4]. - Corn starch: The price of corn starch 2511 was 2,475 yuan, down 0.24%. The spot prices in Changchun and Weifang decreased. The basis and 11 - 3 spread both declined [4]. 3. Sugar - Futures: On August 26, the price of sugar 2601 was 5,632 yuan, down 0.98%, and the price of sugar 2509 was 5,678 yuan, down 0.73%. ICE raw sugar主力 was at 16.42 cents/lb, up 0.18% [8]. - Spot: Spot prices in Nanning and other places decreased slightly. Imported Brazilian sugar prices (both quota - in and quota - out) decreased [8]. - Industry situation: National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, while industrial inventories decreased. Sugar imports increased significantly [8]. 4. Live Hogs - Futures: The price of the main contract of live hogs decreased slightly. The 11 - 1 spread was - 340 yuan, down 3.03% [9]. - Spot: Spot prices in various regions were stable with a slight decline. Slaughter volume increased slightly, and self - breeding and外购 breeding profits improved [9]. 5. Cotton - Futures: On August 26, the price of cotton 2509 was 13,780 yuan, down 0.14%, and the price of cotton 2601 was 14,100 yuan, down 0.14%. ICE US cotton主力 was at 66.67 cents/lb, down 1.05% [11]. - Spot: Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index increased, while FC Index decreased. The basis between 3128B and 01 contract increased by 11.92% [11]. - Industry situation: Commercial inventory decreased, import volume increased, and textile industry indicators showed mixed trends [11]. 6. Eggs - Futures: The price of the egg 09 contract was 2,916 yuan/500KG, down 1.19%, and the price of the egg 10 contract was 3,013 yuan/500KG, down 0.26% [13]. - Spot: The egg - producing area price was 3.19 yuan/jin, up 2.42%. The basis increased by 84.78% [13]. - Related indicators: Egg - chick prices decreased, and the egg - feed ratio increased. Breeding profits improved [13]. 7. Meal - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,050 yuan, down 0.33%. The futures price of M2601 was 3,081 yuan, down 1.15%. The basis was - 31 yuan, up 45.61%. Brazilian 10 - month shipping schedule's crushing profit increased by 81.7% [17]. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,600 yuan, up 0.78%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2,526 yuan, down 0.82%. The basis was 74 yuan, up 124.24% [17]. - Soybeans: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,980 yuan, up 0.76%. The futures price of the soybean - one main contract was 3,974 yuan, down 0.45%. The basis increased by 114.29% [17]. - Spreads: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal decreased by 10.62%, and the oil - meal ratio increased slightly [17].