大越期货纯碱早报-20250827

Report Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly oscillate weakly. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: There are few maintenance works at soda ash plants, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass is declining, and terminal demand is weakening. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,311 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 111 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, suggesting a bearish trend [2][36]. - Market trend: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, showing a bearish sign [2]. - Main positions: The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: Due to the strong supply and weak demand of soda ash fundamentals, it is expected to mainly oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: The peak season for summer maintenance is coming, and production will decline [3]. - Bearish factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year, with industry output at a historical high for the same period; the production of heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass has been reduced, weakening the demand for soda ash; the positive sentiment from the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 1.94%, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe decreased by 1.64%, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 5.13% [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The production profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 48.10 yuan/ton, and that using the East China combined - soda process is - 58 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 88.48%, and the seasonal decline in the operating rate has been postponed [18]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 771,400 tons, including 425,200 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with the output at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale increase in new production capacity of soda ash, with a total planned increase of 1.57 billion tons, and the actual production launched in 2025 is 1 million tons [21]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 97.80% [24]. - In the downstream of soda ash, the national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [33]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheets of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates of various indicators [37].