大越期货玻璃早报-20250827

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period. Although there has been a phased restocking downstream and a reduction in glass factory inventories, the sustainability of this inventory reduction is questionable. It is expected that glass will mainly show a wide - range oscillatory trend [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1191 yuan/ton to 1173 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.51%. The spot price of the main benchmark product in Shahe decreased from 1072 yuan/ton to 1064 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.75%. The main basis decreased from - 119 yuan/ton to - 109 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.40% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large plates in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1064 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side: The production profit of glass has declined, and the cold - repair speed of the industry has slowed down. The start - up rate and production volume have dropped to the lowest level in the same period in history [2]. - Supply: The number of operating national float glass production lines is 223, with a start - up rate of 75.34%. The daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history but has stabilized and rebounded [23][25]. - Demand: In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons. The terminal real - estate demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw glass inventories [29][4]. - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.606 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.28% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [43]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2017 to 2024E, the production and consumption of float glass have fluctuated. In 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a production growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption is expected to be 53.1 million tons, with a consumption growth rate of - 1.15% [44]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - Negative Factors: The terminal real - estate demand is weak, the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and the "anti - involution" market sentiment has subsided [4].