大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a slightly stronger and volatile trend today. This is due to factors such as cost support, the expected upcoming anti - involution reform plan in the petrochemical industry, but also constrained by weak demand [4][6][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, contracting for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. An overall reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being formulated, expected to be introduced in September. The overall demand for agricultural films is lower than expected, and the film production start - up rate is low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7350 (+50), with overall neutral fundamentals [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 52, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.7%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 564,000 tons (+59,000), which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile. With the expectation of anti - involution policies and weak agricultural film demand, and neutral industrial inventory, the PE market is expected to trend slightly stronger and volatile today [4]. - Likely Factors: Cost support and the expected upcoming petrochemical anti - involution reform plan are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic data shows a manufacturing contraction in July. An overall reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is in the works. Downstream demand in the pipe and plastic weaving sectors is slightly improving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7050 (+20), with overall neutral fundamentals [8]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 4, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.1%, showing a neutral signal [8]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 572,000 tons (-15,000), which is neutral [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [8]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are decreasing, showing a bearish signal [8]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile. With the expectation of anti - involution policies and slightly improved downstream demand, and neutral industrial inventory, the PP market is expected to trend slightly stronger and volatile today [8]. - Likely Factors: Cost support and the expected upcoming petrochemical anti - involution reform plan are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor [9]. Data Tables - Spot and Futures Market: The data shows the prices and price changes of LLDPE and PP spot and futures contracts, as well as the basis and inventory information [11]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: Provides historical supply - demand balance data for polyethylene and polypropylene from 2018 - 2024, including capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators, along with estimated data for 2025 [16][18].