大越期货油脂早报-20250827

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, the demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,538, with a basis of 38, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. It is bearish [2] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,250 - 8,650 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,638, with a basis of 138, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. It is bullish [3] - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. It is bullish [3] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have turned to short positions. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,986, with a basis of 165, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. It is bearish [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]