大越期货白糖早报-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sugar market presents a complex situation with both bullish and bearish factors. The short - term outlook for the sugar main contract 01 is a downward trend under pressure at 5700, with support around 5600. Although there has been a significant increase in imported sugar in recent months, the spot price remains relatively firm [5]. - Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production and a supply surplus in the new year [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information about the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: SCA Brasil estimates that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season will be 39.1 million tons, a 3% decrease year - on - year. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, with a sales rate of 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4]. - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 6030, and the basis for the 01 contract is 398, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.61 million tons, which is bullish [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions. The main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]. - Expectation: The sugar main contract 01 is under short - term pressure at 5700 and is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Although the import of sugar has increased significantly in recent months, the current spot price is relatively firm and less affected by the impact of imported sugar. The support level for sugar 01 is around 5600 [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information about today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecast: Different institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 season. Green Pool forecasts a surplus of 2.7 million tons, USDA forecasts a surplus of 1.1397 million tons, Czarnikow forecasts a surplus of 780,000 tons, and Datagro forecasts a surplus of 258,000 tons [35]. - China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: The sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 11.2 million tons, imports are expected to be 5 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 15.9 million tons, with a balance change of 120,000 tons [37]. 3.5 Position Data The main position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5].