沪锌期货早报-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc ZN2510 is expected to be in a volatile consolidation phase. The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc decline in a volatile manner, with shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with the long side increasing slightly more. Technically, the price is above the 60 - day moving average with weak support, short - term indicators KDJ are falling and operating in the weak zone, and trend indicators show that both long and short forces are declining and starting to stalemate [21]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1153000 tons and consumption was 1130200 tons, with a supply surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons and consumption was 4507900 tons, with a supply shortage of 56500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4040600 tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The basis is +60 with the spot price at 22330, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On August 26, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2550 tons to 65525 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1172 tons to 36366 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a volatile downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average pointing downwards, which is a bearish factor [2]. - The main positions are net short, and short positions increased, which is a bearish factor [2]. 3.2 Zinc Futures Market Quotes - On August 26, for different delivery months of zinc futures, prices generally declined. For example, for the 2510 contract, the previous settlement was 22355, the opening price was 22355, the highest price was 22395, the lowest price was 22245, the closing price was 22270, and the settlement reference price was 22305, with a decline of - 85 and - 50 respectively. The total trading volume was 149597 lots, and the total trading value was 1668458.69 [3]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market Quotes - On August 26, the price of zinc concentrate in Lin was 17000 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot in Aoshi was 22330 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet in China was 4089 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe in China was 4492 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22830 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27430 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Lin was 7726 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 3.4 National Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From August 14 to August 25, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 10.99 million tons to 12.48 million tons. Compared with August 18, it increased by 0.97 million tons, and compared with August 21, it increased by 0.74 million tons [5]. 3.5 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report - On August 26, the total zinc warrants at SHFE were 36366 tons, an increase of 1172 tons. Among them, the warrants in Tianjin increased by 1172 tons to 17844 tons, and the warrants in Guangdong were 18522 tons with no change [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On August 26, the previous day's LME zinc inventory was 68075 tons, with an inflow of 67975 tons, an outflow of 2550 tons, and the current inventory was 65525 tons, a decrease of 2550 tons [8]. 3.7 National Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On August 26, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions was around 17000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 10 yuan/ton. For example, in places like Jiyuan, Kunming, and Chifeng, the price was 17000 yuan/ton, 17000 yuan/ton, and 16900 yuan/ton respectively [10]. 3.8 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On August 26, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters varied. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Weixiang was 22550 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots from Sanjing Gangshi was 22880 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots from Guangdong Zhongjinlingnan was 22280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [14]. 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 45.97 million tons, and the actual production was 47.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and a 2.63% increase compared with the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 47.03 million tons [16]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - On August 26, the processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions were different. For example, in Hilt Hel, the average processing fee was 3800 yuan/metal ton; in Huludao, it was 4000 yuan/metal ton. The average processing fee for imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 85 US dollars/dry ton [18]. 3.11 SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the zn2510 contract on August 26, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures with 25366 lots (down 9946 lots), Dongzheng Futures with 20851 lots (down 9712 lots), and Guotai Junan with 18410 lots (down 4405 lots). In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures with 14378 lots (down 881 lots), Dongzheng Futures with 6392 lots (up 459 lots), and Guotai Junan with 4899 lots (down 413 lots). In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures with 12224 lots (up 151 lots), Dongzheng Futures with 10385 lots (up 52 lots), and Guotai Junan with 7208 lots (up 7 lots) [19].