焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-27）-20250827

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of coking coal is expected to be strong. Although the production of coking enterprises in some areas is restricted due to the approaching parade, the rigid demand for coking coal is strongly supported by the high level of steel mill hot metal and the increased production enthusiasm of coking enterprises after seven rounds of coke price increases [2]. - The short - term trend of coke is expected to be stable and slightly strong. The supply - demand pattern of the coke market remains tight as steel mill arrivals are delayed and environmental protection restrictions continue to suppress coking enterprise operations [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - The supply from mines is frequently disturbed, and the increase in coking coal supply is limited. The online auction results of coking coal vary, with some coal types failing to be sold, and the prices of traded coal types fluctuate slightly. Mines have strong price - holding intentions due to low inventory and the background of continued coke price increases [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot market price is 1190, and the basis is 29.5, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. Inventory Analysis - The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1890.7 million tons, a decrease of 28.1 million tons from last week, including 805.8 million tons in steel mills, 255.5 million tons in ports, and 829.4 million tons in independent coking enterprises [2]. Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [2]. Position Analysis - The main coking coal contract has a net short position, and short positions are increasing [2]. Factors - Bullish factors: rising hot metal production and limited supply growth [4]. - Bearish factors: slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke Fundamental Analysis - After the seventh price increase, the profits of coking enterprises have been significantly repaired, and production enthusiasm is high. However, due to recent parade environmental protection policies, many coking enterprises have implemented production restrictions, and the start - up rate has declined. There is no inventory pressure under downstream demand support [5]. Basis Analysis - The spot market price is 1640, and the basis is - 41, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. Inventory Analysis - The total sample inventory of coke is 864.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 million tons from last week, including 609.8 million tons in steel mills, 215.1 million tons in ports, and 39.3 million tons in independent coking enterprises [5]. Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average [5]. Position Analysis - The main coke contract has a net short position, and short positions are increasing [5]. Factors - Bullish factors: rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [7]. - Bearish factors: squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [7]. Price - On August 26 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, with some prices showing fluctuations [8]. - On August 26 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke at different ports and of different grades are provided, with some prices rising and some falling [9]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons from last week [19]. Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory - Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from last week [24]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [28]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].