大越期货尿素早报-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China. The futures price, which previously rose due to rumors of increased export expectations, has fallen as actual export demand has not improved significantly. The market is expected to remain volatile today, influenced by factors such as high domestic production and inventory, weak domestic demand, and strong international prices, with the export policy not being more relaxed than expected [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures market has been oscillating downward recently. The previous rise in futures prices due to rumors of improved China - India relations and increased export expectations did not materialize in actual export demand, leading to a decline in market sentiment. Current daily production and operating rates are high, and inventory is at a high level overall. Industrial demand from compound fertilizers and melamine is low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand significantly. Although export profits have declined, they remain strong, and the export policy has not been more relaxed than expected. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 73, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.0%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 143.7 million tons (-2.0), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The main urea contract is oscillating. International urea prices are strong, but the export policy has not been more relaxed than expected. With the domestic supply still significantly exceeding demand, the UR is expected to oscillate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish Factors: International prices are strong [5]. - Bearish Factors: Operating rates and daily production are at high levels, and domestic demand is weak [5]. - Main Logic: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand are the main influencing factors [5]. Market Data - Spot and Futures: The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 1737 (-8), the price of the 05 contract is 1777 (-12), and the price of the 09 contract is 1703 (-11). The basis of the UR01 contract is 73 (up 8) [6]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 143.7 million tons, the UR manufacturer inventory is 89.6 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 54.1 million tons, all unchanged [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown varying degrees of change. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].