棉花早报-20250827

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall assessment of cotton investment is complex. The fundamentals are neutral, with different data sources showing varying production, consumption, and inventory figures. The basis is bullish, the inventory is bearish, the market trend is bullish, the main position is bullish, and there are differences in the market's expectations for the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October." If the Zhengzhou cotton main contract 01 can stand above 14,000, the probability of subsequent volatile upward movement increases; otherwise, if it falls below 14,000, the downward space will open [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US, a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, and an enhanced expectation for the peak consumption season of "Golden September and Silver October." Bearish factors include the postponement of trade negotiations, currently high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: According to ICAC's August report, the production in the 2025/26 season is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. According to USDA's August report, the production in the 2025/26 season is 25.392 million tons, consumption is 25.688 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In July, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's August forecast for the 2025/26 season, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,334 yuan, and the basis is 1,234 yuan (for the 01 contract), with a premium over futures [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory in the 2025/26 season to be 8.23 million tons in August [4]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, the net long position increases, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - Expectations: The main contract 01 of Zhengzhou cotton retraced to the 14,000 mark again during the night session. There are differences between the long and short sides regarding the expectation of the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [4]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: In August, the total global production was 25.392 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Total global consumption was 25.688 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. Total global imports were 9.489 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 239,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2%. Total global exports were 9.49 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 240,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3%. The total global ending inventory was 16.093 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 747,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [9][10]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, global production is 25.9 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (+1.6%) year - on - year; global consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically flat year - on - year; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (+1.6%) year - on - year; the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (+3.9%) year - on - year; the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [11]. - Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast for China: In the 2025/26 season, the initial inventory is 8.01 million tons, the sown area is 2.878 million hectares, the harvested area is 2.878 million hectares, the yield per hectare is 2,172 kg, the production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The average domestic cotton 3128B price is expected to be 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be 75 - 100 cents per pound [13]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.