LPG早报-20250827

Group 1: Price Data and Changes - The price data of LPG in different regions and related indicators from August 20 to August 26, 2025 are presented, including prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, etc. [1] - On August 26, compared with the previous day, the daily changes are as follows: South China LPG +25, East China LPG 0, Shandong LPG 0, propane CFR South China 0, propane CIF Japan -10, MB propane spot -1, CP forecast contract price 0, Shandong ether - post - carbon four +40, Shandong alkylation oil 0, paper import profit +25, and the main basis +12 [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Trends - The PG futures market fluctuated and strengthened. The spot price bottomed out and rebounded, and the import cost increased. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas. The basis weakened, and the month - spreads changed. The warehouse receipt registration volume decreased slightly [1] - The external market prices strengthened slightly. The internal - external price difference fluctuated. The FEI - CP spread widened, and the FEI offshore and CP to - shore discounts strengthened. The shipping freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and the Middle East to the Far East decreased [1] - The naphtha crack spread strengthened slightly. The profit of PDH to produce propylene increased, the spot profit of PDH to produce PP decreased, and the paper profit fluctuated. The production profit of alkylation oil increased slightly, and the MTBE profit changed little [1] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - From a fundamental perspective, port supply and demand both decreased, and inventory was basically flat. The refinery commercial volume increased by 1.94%, but due to the recovery of demand in many places, the refinery inventory decreased [1] - The PDH operating rate was 75.66% (-0.67pct), and it is expected that multiple units will increase their loads next week. The alkylation operating rate was 51.42% (-0.67pct) and is expected to increase. The MTBE operating rate was 63.54% (+0.15pct) [1] - As the temperature begins to drop, the off - season for combustion is gradually ending. In East China, the supply from refineries is expected to be limited, and the arrival of ships is expected to decrease. Although the demand is still affected by high temperature, there are expectations of improvement, and the overall situation is expected to be stable [1]