大越期货甲醇早报-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - China plans to address over - capacity in the petrochemical industry through industrial restructuring, which provides short - term policy support for market sentiment. However, the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken slightly. It is predicted that domestic methanol will show a volatile and consolidating trend this week. The inland market is relatively balanced in the short - term, but there are expectations of increased production, and high port inventories will also have an impact. The port market is expected to maintain a situation of high volatility and strong linkage with both upward and downward potential under strong expectations and weak reality. It is estimated that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2601 expected to trade between 2370 - 2450 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2601 are neutral, with a bearish basis, neutral inventory, bearish on the disk, bullish in terms of main positions, and the expectation is that prices will fluctuate this week [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Long factors: Some device shutdowns such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; Decreased methanol start - up in Iran and low port inventories; The 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen started production on May 16, and the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device of Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; Methanol procurement by northwest CTO factories [6]. - Short factors: Resumption of previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; Concentrated expected arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; Formaldehyde entering the traditional off - season and a significant decline in MTBE start - up; Coal - to - methanol having a certain profit margin and active shipments; Accumulation of inventories in some production areas due to poor shipments [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Spot and Futures Market - Spot prices: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2300 yuan/ton, and there are price data for other regions such as Shandong, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia. Futures closing price is 2395 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous value [5][8]. - Basis: The basis of the 01 contract is - 95, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [5]. - Warehouse receipts and effective forecasts: The number of registered warehouse receipts is 10,466, down 100 from the previous value, and the effective forecast is 0 [8]. 3.3.2 Price Spread Structure - Basis is - 123 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous value; Import price spread is - 76 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous value; There are also price spreads between different regions [8]. 3.3.3 Start - up Rates - The national weighted average start - up rate is 74.90%, down 3.81% from the previous week. Start - up rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also changed [8]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of August 21, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 934,200 tons, an increase of 43,100 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has increased by 35,700 tons to 606,900 tons [5]. 3.3.5 Production Profits of Different Processes - Coal - to - methanol profit is 287 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton from the previous week; Natural gas - to - methanol profit is - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged; Coke oven gas - to - methanol profit is 448 yuan/ton, up 323 yuan/ton from the previous week [21]. 3.3.6 Downstream Product Data - Traditional downstream products: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained unchanged this week. The production profit of formaldehyde is - 187 yuan/ton, with a load of 25.42%, up 0.90% from the previous week; The production profit of dimethyl ether is 369 yuan/ton, with a load of 8.88%, up 0.82% from the previous week; The production profit of acetic acid is 0 yuan/ton, with a load of 82.42%, up 1.94% from the previous week [31][35][38][42]. - MTO: The production profit of MTO is - 570 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the load is 79.84%, up 0.15% from the previous week [47]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic devices: Many domestic methanol production enterprises have devices under maintenance, including Shaanxi Heima, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance periods and losses vary by enterprise [58]. - Foreign devices: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of resuming production or running stably at a certain level. For example, ZPC is reported to have resumed one set, and Marjan is in the process of resuming production since mid - March [59]. - Olefin devices: Some olefin devices are under maintenance or running stably. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices were shut down for maintenance on March 15, expected to last 45 days, while some other devices such as Yan'an Energy and Chemical are running smoothly [60].