建信期货铁矿石日评-20250827

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On August 26, the iron ore futures main contract 2601 fluctuated weakly, closing at 776.5 yuan/ton, down 0.70%. The main iron ore outer - market quotes and Qingdao Port iron ore prices decreased. Although the iron ore 2601 contract's technical indicators showed some positive signals, the market was affected by factors such as the SimFer mine accident, supply - demand fundamentals, and external news. The market expected that the parade might lead to a decline in terminal construction site demand and blast furnace demand, and the mine price weakened again. Further observation of the actual impact of production cuts in Tangshan and the impact of the 9·3 production restrictions on downstream construction steel demand is needed [7][9][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - Spot Market: On August 26, the main iron ore outer - market quotes decreased by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 5 - 8 yuan/ton [9] - Technical Analysis: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to rise after a golden cross yesterday, and the green bar of the daily MACD indicator has narrowed for two consecutive days [9] 1.2 Future Outlook - News: On August 23, Rio Tinto announced that an accident at the SimFer mine in Guinea led to a fatality, and all activities in the mine were suspended. The impact of the accident was limited, and production was expected to resume soon. However, it boosted bullish sentiment in the short term, which has now faded [10][11] - Fundamentals: Supply - the weekly shipment volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil increased slightly last week, with a significant increase in Australian shipments and a decline in Brazilian shipments. The total shipment volume in the past four weeks increased by 1.8% compared with the previous four weeks. Considering shipping schedules, the subsequent arrival volume may be low first and then high. Demand - enterprises' production enthusiasm remained high, and the molten iron output increased for two consecutive weeks, remaining above 2.4 million tons. Regarding the 9·3 production restrictions, according to Mysteel's survey, 20 out of 31 steel mills received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions, mainly for sintering machines with a 30% - 40% reduction. Only 13 steel mills said their blast furnace production would be affected, mostly in Tangshan. The recent decline in steel production profits, especially for rebar blast furnaces, may affect future production enthusiasm. Downstream steel demand recovered last week, but its sustainability needs to be observed. Considering the possible phased suspension of infrastructure projects in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region before September 3, a cautious attitude is recommended, and there is a possibility of demand weakening again [11] 2. Industry News - On August 25, 2025, the Australian Anti - Dumping Commission postponed the release of the basic fact report and final arbitration recommendation for the anti - dumping sunset review investigation of imported wire rods from China. It is expected to complete the basic fact report by December 10, 2025, and submit the final arbitration report to the Australian Minister of Industry and Science by February 23, 2026 [13] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including prices, shipment volumes, arrival volumes, inventory, production capacity utilization rates, and consumption volumes, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [17][24][40]