大越期货豆粕早报-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: The market is expected to enter a moderately bullish oscillatory pattern in the short - term. The price of soybean meal M2601 is predicted to oscillate within the range of 3020 - 3080. The US soybean产区 weather uncertainty supports the bottom of the US soybean price, while the high arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans in China restricts the upward movement of domestic soybean meal prices [8]. - Soybeans: The domestic soybean market is currently neutral. The price of soybean A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3900 - 4000. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price, but the expected high yield of new domestic soybeans and the large - scale import of Brazilian soybeans suppress the upward potential [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean Meal: The futures price of soybean meal rose and then fell, while the spot price remained relatively stable, with the high - level spot discount narrowing. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal production in July increased year - on - year. The downstream procurement has rebounded from the low level, and the pick - up volume remains high [22][24][26]. - Soybeans: The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory increased slightly. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills continued to decline, indicating a short - term reduction in stocking demand [45][47]. 3.2 Recent News - The short - term progress of China - US tariff negotiations is favorable for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in August. Affected by the relatively favorable data in the August US agricultural report and the rise in rapeseed meal prices, domestic soybean meal is oscillating moderately bullishly in the short - term. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. However, the recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports the price. Due to the uncertainty in China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal has returned to the range - bound pattern [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish Factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish Factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, completion of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and continuous expectation of a high - yield South American soybean harvest [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish Factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish Factors: Continuous expectation of a high - yield Brazilian soybean harvest, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and expected high yield of new domestic soybeans [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 3010, with a basis of - 91, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 105.33 million tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - Soybeans: The spot price in Jiamusi is 4300, with a basis of 326, indicating a premium to the futures. The soybean inventory of oil mills is 682.53 million tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease from the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - Soybean Meal: The long positions of the main players decreased, but the capital inflow was positive [8]. - Soybeans: The long positions of the main players increased, and there was capital inflow [10]. 3.6 Others - Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - Sowing, Growth, and Harvest Progress: Data on the sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 are presented [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - USDA Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from February to August 2025 are included, covering data on harvested area, yield, production, ending inventory, exports, and crushing volume [41]. - Export and Arrival Data: The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in August and then declined, with an overall year - on - year increase [42][44]. - Cost and Profit: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following the decline of US soybeans, and the profit of imported soybean futures weakened [51]. - Livestock Market: The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price recently rose and then fell, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit declined recently [53][55][57][59].