大越期货PVC期货早报-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure decreased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly next week as maintenance is expected to decrease [7]. - Current demand may remain sluggish, with the overall downstream operating rate below historical average levels, except for the film and paste resin sectors which are above historical average levels but still showing a decline [8]. - The cost of calcium carbide method is strengthening, while that of ethylene method is weakening, with the overall cost strengthening. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4962 - 5036 [9]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positives include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negatives include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply Side: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 328,255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 136,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04% [7]. - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 37.65%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 33.61%, a month - on - month increase of 0.649 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 70.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 77.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive [8]. - Cost Side: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 9.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,753.65 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 0.90% month - on - month, higher than the historical average [8]. - Other Aspects: The main position is net short with an increase in shorts. The basis on August 26th showed that the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,840 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 159 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory decreased by 6.32% month - on - month, with calcium carbide method factory inventory decreasing by 6.10% and ethylene method factory inventory decreasing by 7.05%. Social inventory increased by 3.08% month - on - month. The inventory days of production enterprises decreased by 5.55% month - on - month. The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8][9][10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, inventory, operating rates, and production of different types of PVC (calcium carbide method and ethylene method), as well as various cost and profit indicators [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend The report presents the historical trend of the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price from 2022 to 2025 [17][18]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads of PVC futures from 2024 to 2025 [23][24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - Lancoke: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily production of Lancoke from 2022 to 2025 [26][27]. - Calcium Carbide: It shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide from 2019 to 2025 [29][30]. - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt: It provides the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price, monthly production of raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [31][32]. - Caustic Soda: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory of caustic soda, and the profit of the chlor - alkali industry from 2019 to 2025 [33][34][35][36]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC from 2018 to 2025 [37][38][39][40]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates (profile, pipe, film, paste resin) of PVC, as well as the investment, construction, new construction, sales, and completion data of the real estate industry, and some macro - economic indicators such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year from 2018 to 2025 [42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Inventory It presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [55][56]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method It shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and some price spreads (ethylene method FOB spread, vinyl chloride import spread) from 2018 to 2025 [57][58]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet It provides the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025 [60][61].