Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - For methanol, port inventory has significantly accumulated, with high imports and high actual inventory. Inland supply is expected to return, and traditional demand will enter the peak season later. Attention should be paid to whether demand can support after the return of inland supply. If inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol is expected to see a valuation decline [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat, and downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating. The number of September overhauls is flat month - on - month, and the recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [6]. - For polypropylene, the upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differentials are neutral. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, and downstream orders are currently average, with neutral raw material and finished - product inventories. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - For PVC, the basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest plants are seasonally overhauled in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability in Q4. Recent export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [6]. 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price Data: From August 20 to August 26, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of Jiangsu and South China spot, and other regional prices had certain fluctuations. The daily change on August 26 showed a 0 change in power coal futures, - 27 in Jiangsu spot, - 5 in South China spot, etc [1]. - Inventory and Market Situation: Port inventory has significantly accumulated, with high imports and high actual inventory. Inland supply is expected to return, and traditional demand will enter the peak season later [1]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From August 20 to August 26, 2025, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 830 on some days and then increased to 840. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, etc. had certain increases. The daily change on August 26 showed a 0 change in Northeast Asian ethylene, 20 in North China LL, 25 in East China LL, etc [6]. - Inventory and Market Situation: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat, and downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now [6]. Polypropylene - Price Data: From August 20 to August 26, 2025, the price of Shandong propylene changed from 6380 to 6450, and other prices also had certain fluctuations. The daily change on August 26 showed a 30 increase in Shandong propylene, 0 in Northeast Asian propylene, etc [6]. - Inventory and Market Situation: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year [6]. PVC - Price Data: From August 20 to August 26, 2025, the price of Northwest calcium carbide increased from 2200 to 2350, and other prices had certain changes. The daily change on August 26 showed a 50 increase in Northwest calcium carbide, 0 in Shandong caustic soda, etc [6]. - Inventory and Market Situation: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100 [6].
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-08-27 05:24