大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists due to capacity mismatch, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [9][12]. - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 77360 - 80700 [9]. - In the next month, supply is expected to increase, while demand is expected to strengthen and inventory may be reduced [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply - side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,138 tons, a 4.21% week - on - week decrease, but still higher than the historical average. In July 2025, production was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 tons, a 3.27% month - on - month increase. The import volume in July was 13,845 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 tons, a 33.62% month - on - month increase [8][9]. - Demand - side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 93,640 tons, a 1.51% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,617 tons, a 1.86% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost - side: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased week - on - week, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 78,520 yuan/ton, a 0.37% daily decrease, with a production profit of 2,021 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 81,292 yuan/ton, a 0.70% daily decrease, with a production loss of 2,848 yuan/ton. The production cost on the recycling side is generally higher than that on the ore side, with negative production profits and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake side is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Other aspects: On August 26, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,680 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing [9]. - Likely positive factors: Manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in spodumene imports [10]. - Likely negative factors: High - level supply on the ore/salt lake side with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery side to take delivery [11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Lithium Carbonate Market Overview: The prices of various lithium - related products such as spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, and battery - grade lithium carbonate showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of 6% spodumene decreased by 0.54% to 920 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.97% to 81,700 yuan/ton [15]. - Supply - side Data: The weekly and monthly production, import, and export data of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, and other products showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in July 2025 was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% month - on - month increase; the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 576,138 tons, a 34.73% month - on - month increase [17]. - Demand - side Data: The demand - side data mainly includes the production, sales, and inventory data of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and other downstream products. For example, the monthly total loading volume of power batteries was 55,900 GWh, a 3.95% month - on - month decrease; the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.262 million, a 5.04% month - on - month decrease [17][18]. - Inventory Data: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate was 141,543 tons, a 0.50% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Among them, smelter inventory decreased by 5.72% to 46,846 tons, lower than the historical average; downstream inventory increased by 6.68% to 51,507 tons, higher than the historical average; other inventory decreased by 2.46% to 43,190 tons, higher than the historical average [9].