广发期货《有色》日报-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Aluminum - Short - term aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic due to improved macro - atmosphere and peak - season expectations. The main contract reference range is 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. However, if demand doesn't improve and capital sentiment cools, the price may fall [1]. Alumina - The overall supply of alumina is in an oversupply pattern. Although cost and some factory overhauls provide support, the spot and futures prices are under pressure. The main contract reference range is 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton, and short - term downward and upward spaces are limited [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals of the aluminum alloy market are marginally improving. Spot prices are expected to remain relatively firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The main contract reference range is 20000 - 20600 yuan/ton [3]. Copper - Copper prices are at least expected to remain volatile. The price may enter a new upward cycle when the commodity and financial attributes of copper resonate. The main contract reference range is 78500 - 80500 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term due to improved interest - rate cut expectations. The main contract reference range is 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton. Upward continuous rebound requires better - than - expected demand, and downward breakthrough needs ultra - strong TC and continuous inventory accumulation [8]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price is expected to be adjusted within a range. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton. The market has cost support, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to have short - term range - bound fluctuations. The main contract reference range is 12600 - 13400 yuan/ton. The market is still restricted by weak spot demand, and the cost support remains [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate around 80,000 yuan/ton. The supply - side news is not fully confirmed, and the improved fundamentals provide support for the price [14]. Tin - Tin prices have risen due to the dovish signal from the Fed. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the price is expected to remain high and volatile [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - Aluminum: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20780 yuan/ton, with a change of 0 yuan/ton; the spread between 2509 - 2510 is 25 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. - Alumina: The average price of alumina in Shandong is 3180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.31%) [1]. - Aluminum Alloy: SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy price is 20550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between 2511 - 2512 is - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3]. - Copper: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79585 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton (0.24%); the spread between 2509 - 2510 is 40 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [4]. - Zinc: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (- 0.13%); the spread between 2509 - 2510 is 15 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton [8]. - Nickel: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 121450 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton (0.16%); the spread between 2510 - 2511 is - 110 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [10]. - Stainless Steel: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between 2510 - 2511 is - 70 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [12]. - Lithium Carbonate: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 81700 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton (- 0.97%); the spread between 2509 - 2511 is 240 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [14]. - Tin: SMM 1 tin price is 270000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton (0.11%); the spread between 2509 - 2510 is - 340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - Aluminum: In July, aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month; the aluminum profile production rate was 50.5%, unchanged month - on - month [1]. - Alumina: In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the daily average production exceeded 260,000 tons, a record high [1]. - Aluminum Alloy: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.5 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.6 million tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [3]. - Copper: In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import volume was 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [4]. - Zinc: In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; the import volume was 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [8]. - Nickel: In July, the production of refined nickel products was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [10]. - Stainless Steel: In July, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 7.3 million tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [12]. - Lithium Carbonate: In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the demand was 96,100 tons, up 2.50% month - on - month [14]. - Tin: In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [17].