Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Pro Farmer report indicates that the potential of US soybean crops is relatively stable, with supply - side pressure remaining. However, the unexpected reduction in planting area supports the price floor of US soybeans. For rapeseed - related products in the domestic market, the shortage of near - month rapeseed arrivals eases supply pressure, and the peak season of aquaculture boosts the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal. The temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed further weaken long - term supply. But the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. For rapeseed oil, in the short term, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient domestic vegetable oil supply restrain market prices. However, the low oil mill operating rate and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter reduce supply - side pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9853 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2501 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 654.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 6.2 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 4812 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The rapeseed oil 1 - 5 monthly spread is 170 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the rapeseed meal 1 - 5 monthly spread is 55 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 8620 lots, up 3218 lots; for rapeseed meal, they are - 15264 lots, down 4314 lots. The main contract positions for rapeseed oil are 282897 lots, and for rapeseed meal are 419022 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3887 sheets, up 400 sheets; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 7710 sheets, down 277 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10020 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10085 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 8147.66 yuan/ton, down 43.56 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Spreads and ratios: The oil - meal ratio is 3.78, down 0.02. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 199 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 59 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1290 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 550 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 480 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual rapeseed production forecast is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 17.6 tons, down 0.85 tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 15 tons, up 4 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 15 tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 12.79%, up 0.85 percentage points. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 632 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.5 tons, up 0.05 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.1 tons, down 0.45 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 53.6 tons, down 0.6 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 32.86 tons, down 0.73 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 4.9 tons, down 0.1 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 21.4 tons, down 0.4 tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 2.81 tons, down 0.95 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.79 tons, down 0.45 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production and consumption: The monthly production of feed is 2827.3 tons, down 110.4 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 tons, up 41.8 tons. The monthly social consumer goods retail total for catering revenue is 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.08%, up 0.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 20.08%, up 0.09 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.16%, down 2.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.17%, down 2.15 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 32.42%, up 0.1 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 21.71%, down 0.4 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 17.48%, down 2.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 14.4%, down 0.45 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Futures market news: On August 26, ICE rapeseed futures weakened but were still relatively strong compared to the soybean oil market. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract fell 4.60 Canadian dollars to settle at 654.80 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January contract fell 4.60 Canadian dollars to settle at 666.90 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - Crop forecast news: The Pro Farmer report predicts that the average yield of US soybeans will reach a record - high 53.0 bushels per acre, with a total production of 4.246 billion bushels, showing relatively stable crop potential and supply - side pressure [2]. - Policy and trade news: AAFC estimates that Canada's rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season will be 20.1 million tons, a 12.9% increase from the July estimate, and the carry - over inventory will double. China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may affect its exports and put pressure on Canadian rapeseed prices. There are signals of easing relations between China and Canada, and news of Sino - US soybean trade negotiations may affect domestic meal prices [2].
瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250827
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-27 08:57