沪铜产业日报-20250827

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index has rebounded but remains in the negative range, and the firmness of copper mines still supports copper prices. [2] - On the supply side, the copper concentrate at ports continues to decline, and the demand of domestic smelters has increased. It is expected that the domestic refined copper supply may increase slightly. [2] - On the demand side, due to the continued impact of the off - season, downstream consumption remains weak. However, as the peak season approaches, downstream may have some pre - stocking demand, so the overall demand is expected to gradually improve. [2] - Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may show a slight increase in supply, stable but improving demand, and industry inventories remain in the medium - low range. [2] - In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.27, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.0012. The market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. [2] - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,190 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,789.50 dollars/ton, down 47.50 dollars. [2] - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 0 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 174,997 lots, down 491 lots. [2] - The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 12,244 lots, down 1,967 lots; the LME copper inventory is 155,000 tons, down 975 tons. [2] - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 81,698 tons (weekly), down 4,663 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 13,250 tons, up 1,500 tons. [2] - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 21,287 tons, down 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 79,545 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 79,585 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. [2] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 60 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 55 dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of the CU main contract is 355 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 84.82 dollars/ton, down 6.44 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 256.01 million tons (monthly), up 21.05 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 41.15 dollars/kiloton (weekly), down 3.47 dollars. [2] - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 69,880 yuan/metal ton, down 110 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 70,580 yuan/metal ton, down 110 yuan. [2] - The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton (weekly), down 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The output of refined copper is 127 million tons (monthly), down 3.20 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons (weekly), up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,690 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. [2] - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,350 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons (monthly), down 4.51 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 331.5 billion yuan (monthly), up 40.434 billion yuan. [2] - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 5,357.977 billion yuan (monthly), up 692.221 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, up 183,435,300 pieces. [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 8.10%, down 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.29%, down 0.00%. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 9.23%, down 0.0127%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is down 0.0012. [2] 3.7 Industry News - The 13th plenary session of the 14th Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held. It is necessary to place the development of new - quality productivity according to local conditions in a more prominent strategic position, promote the in - depth integration of the digital economy and the real economy, and accelerate the process of industrial intelligent development. [2] - Premier Li Qiang emphasized during the 15th special study of the State Council that it is necessary to actively expand the import of high - quality services, promote the high - quality development of the service industry through high - level opening - up, and promote the institutional opening of service trade. [2] - US President Trump said in a cabinet meeting that he may appoint Stephen Milan to serve on the Federal Reserve Board for a long - term. Trump said that he will soon have a majority on the Federal Reserve. [2] - Trump said that he may visit China this year or as soon as possible. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that head - of - state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic leading role in Sino - US relations, and the two heads of state maintain close exchanges and communication. [2]