Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate futures main contract first rose and then fell, closing down 0.23%. The open interest increased month - on - month, the spot was at a premium, and the basis strengthened. - Fundamentally, on the raw material side, lithium ore prices fluctuate sharply with the spot price of lithium carbonate. On the supply side, the previous relatively strong market quickly turned weak as some smelters in Jiangxi resumed production after equipment maintenance. Currently, domestic supply may increase slightly. On the demand side, downstream buyers are more cautious, but the procurement demand has rebounded as lithium prices fall rapidly. Overall, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, and the inventory is still high but decreasing. - In the options market, the put - call ratio of open interest is 75.35%, up 0.0109% month - on - month. The call open interest dominates, and the market sentiment is bullish with a slight decline in implied volatility. - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the two lines are below the 0 - axis and the red bars are contracting. - The operation suggestion is to short at high levels with a light position and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Main contract closing price: 78,860 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan. - Main contract open interest: 351,322 lots, up 1,826 lots. - Net position of the top 20: - 138,531 lots, up 13,645 lots. - Spread between near and far contracts: 580 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. - Warehouse receipts on GZEE: 26,690 lots/ton, up 1,060 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate: 81,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - Average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate: 79,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - Basis of Li₂CO₃ main contract: 2,740 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China): 961 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - Average price of amblygonite: 7,775 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. - Average price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%): 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Lithium carbonate production: 44,600 tons, up 500 tons. - Lithium carbonate imports: 13,845.31 tons, down 3,852.31 tons. - Lithium carbonate exports: 366.35 tons, down 63.31 tons. - Lithium carbonate enterprise operating rate: 48%, down 4 percentage points. - Power battery production: 133,800 MWh, up 4,600 MWh. - Price of lithium manganate: 33,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Price of lithium hexafluorophosphate: 55,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Price of lithium cobalt oxide: 235,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Price of ternary material (811 type, China): 147,000 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan. - Price of ternary material (622 power type, China): 123,000 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - Price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type, China): 130,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan. - Operating rate of ternary cathode materials: 52%, up 1 percentage point. - Price of lithium iron phosphate: 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode: 51%, down 1 percentage point. - New energy vehicle monthly production (CAAM): 1,243,000 vehicles, down 25,000 vehicles. - New energy vehicle monthly sales (CAAM): 1,262,000 vehicles, down 67,000 vehicles. - Cumulative penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales (CAAM): 44.99%, up 0.68 percentage points. - Cumulative new energy vehicle sales and year - on - year increase: 8,220,000 vehicles, up 2,286,000 vehicles. - New energy vehicle monthly exports: 225,000 vehicles, up 20,000 vehicles. - Cumulative new energy vehicle exports and year - on - year increase: 1.308 million vehicles, up 600,000 vehicles. - 20 - day average volatility of the underlying: 52.75%, down 0.03 percentage points. - 40 - day average volatility of the underlying: 56.43%, down 0.07 percentage points. [2] 3.6 Options Situation - Total call open interest: 205,910 contracts, up 4,714 contracts. - Total put open interest: 155,156 contracts, up 3,574 contracts. - Put - call ratio of total open interest: 75.35%, up 0.0109 percentage points. - At - the - money implied volatility: 0.37%, down 0.0168 percentage points. [2] 4. Industry News - The 13th plenary session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized developing new - quality productive forces, promoting the integration of the digital and real economies, boosting consumption, and enhancing innovation capabilities. - Premier Li Qiang stressed expanding high - quality service imports, promoting institutional opening - up of service trade, and building a unified national market. - He Xiaopeng, Chairman of XPeng Motors, said the elimination stage in China's auto industry will last about five years, and about five domestic enterprises may remain. - The National Energy Administration stated that during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, China built the world's largest EV charging network and the largest and fastest - growing renewable energy system, with the proportion of renewable energy power generation capacity increasing from 40% to about 60%. [2]
瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250827
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-27 08:56