苹果产业日报-20250827

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The low inventory of old apples, high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples, and pre - Mid - Autumn Festival stocking expectations will boost the price trend. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices and pay attention to the listing of early - maturing Fuji apples [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple futures contract is 8278 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 89060 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 16948 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3562 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 4102 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75), Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75), and Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commodities) are 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively, with no week - on - week change [2] Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output is 5128.51 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 168.34 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.74 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.5 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02 yuan/kg. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 39.45 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.56 million tons. The capacity ratios of apple cold - storages in Shandong and Shaanxi are 0.01 and 0.07 respectively. The monthly apple export volume is 50000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 10000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 1997.6 million US dollars, and the monthly export value of apples is 6328.4 million US dollars, with a month - on - month decrease of 212886 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.4 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.76 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.7 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.5 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg. The average daily morning arrival vehicle numbers at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Chalong, and Xiaqiao fruit wholesale markets are 11.4, 14.4, and 22.2 respectively, with week - on - week increases of 3.8, 4.8, and 7.2 respectively [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples is 21.38%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.51% [2] Industry News - On August 27, 2025, the trading of bagged Gala apples in the western production areas basically ended, with the remaining fruits of poor quality and chaotic prices. The bag - removing work of early - maturing Fuji apples has started, but large - scale listing is yet to come. The supply of Gansu Huaniu apples is increasing, but the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is average, and the price is slowly declining. In the Shandong production area, the trading of stored Fuji apples is still ongoing, with holders eager to sell and the market weak. The supply of early - maturing varieties such as Mei 8 and Luli is decreasing, and transactions are priced according to quality. The apple 2510 contract rose 1.47% on Wednesday [2] Viewpoint Summary - It is initially estimated that the national apple output in the new season will be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of August 20, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory is 39.45 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.56 million tons. Although the inventory of old apples is low, the increase in the supply of early - maturing apples has affected the de - stocking speed of inventory goods, and the sales volume has slowed down slightly compared to last week. The market is worried that late - maturing Fuji apples may also have quality problems, leading to high expectations for their opening price [2]