Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has seen an expanded month - on - month destocking, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing destocking. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for storage are decreasing month - on - month, while downstream tire companies are actively purchasing, leading to better - than - expected warehouse shipments and continued destocking at Qingdao Port [2]. - Last week, the domestic tire capacity utilization rate increased month - on - month. The production schedules of maintenance enterprises have basically returned to normal, driving a restorative increase in capacity utilization, and enterprises generally maintain normal sales. However, this week, the tire enterprise capacity utilization rate may decline slightly due to factors such as high - temperature weather and limited overall order growth. Some enterprises may flexibly adjust production schedules or have maintenance plans at the end of the month, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,650 - 16,200 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,760 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 85 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,615 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,145 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 137,392 lots, down 1,722 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 51,988 lots, down 6,908 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 33,175 lots, down 876 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,834 lots, down 1,489 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 177,270 tons, down 20 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 45,662 tons, up 1,310 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,050 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 860 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,085 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,027 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 412 yuan/ton, up 144 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 63.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.9 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) is 58.33 Thai baht/kg, up 0.73 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 55.45 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lumps) is 50.1 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 235 US dollars/ton, up 19.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 37.8 US dollars/ton, up 4.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically - specified natural rubber is 121,900 tons, up 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 259,500 tons, down 21,300 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 64.76%, up 1.67 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.13%, up 1.06 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 39.76 days, up 0.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 47.05 days, up 0.32 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.53%, up 0.52 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.94%, up 0.25 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.64%, down 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.64%, down 0.16 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From August 24th to August 30th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared to the previous period. Areas north of the equator with heavy rainfall are mainly in northern Vietnam, Laos, and southern Myanmar, which may increase the impact on tapping. Areas south of the equator with heavy rainfall are mainly in western Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and the impact on tapping in most other areas has slightly decreased [2]. - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71%. Bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%; general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [2]. - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, raw material supply is tight due to weather, and purchase prices remain high. In Hainan, the weather has improved, tapping has resumed, and the supply of fresh latex is increasing. However, due to possible future rainfall, some processing plants are competing to purchase raw materials at higher prices, driving up raw material purchase prices [2]. - The short - term price range of the ru2601 contract is expected to be between 15,650 - 16,200, and the short - term price range of the nr2510 contract is expected to be between 12,500 - 13,000 [2]. Suggested Attention - The operating rate of Longzhong's tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2]
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250827
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-27 09:12