Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On August 27, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds strengthened collectively, with the yields of 1Y - 7Y maturities declining by about 0.15 - 0.75bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y maturities declining by about 0.20bp to 1.76% and 1.99% respectively. Treasury bond futures also strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.02%, 0.07%, 0.08%, and 0.24% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 rose to around 1.51% and fluctuated. - In terms of the domestic fundamentals, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in July decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, and the profit decline has narrowed for two consecutive months. In July, industrial added value and social retail sales fell more than expected, the scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate remained stable. In July, the financial data showed structural differentiation, with government bonds continuing to support the increase in social financing, while the medium - and long - term financing momentum of enterprises and residents was still insufficient, and new loans turned negative. - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policies to expand service consumption in September, which will promote the recovery of consumption growth. Overseas, the Fed Chairman's speech at the central bank annual meeting increased market bets on a Fed rate cut in September. As bond yields approach the high point in mid - March this year, the allocation value has significantly increased, and allocation demand is expected to effectively support the market. The bond market's sensitivity to external factors such as the rise of the stock market may weaken marginally. - If the fluctuations in the capital and fundamental aspects are limited, the subsequent strengthening of the equity market is expected to have a limited impact on the bond market. The bond market pricing is expected to gradually return to the rational range dominated by fundamentals. However, in the context of the monetary policy focusing on structural tools, the interest rate center lacks the impetus to decline further. Strategically, it is recommended to pay attention to the trading opportunities brought by the phased repair of treasury bond futures. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices and Volumes: The closing prices of the T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts increased by 0.08%, 0.07%, 0.02%, and 0.24% respectively. The trading volumes of the T and TL main contracts increased by 3956 and 22208 respectively, while the trading volumes of the TF and TS main contracts decreased by 8338 and 5141 respectively. - Futures Spreads: The spreads of TL2512 - 2509, T12 - TL12, TF2512 - 2509, TS12 - T12, TS12 - TF12 decreased, while the spreads of T2512 - 2509 and TF12 - T12 increased. - Futures Positions: The positions of the T, TF, and TS main contracts increased by 1656, 1959, and 612 respectively, while the position of the TL main contract decreased by 1148. The net short positions of the T, TF, and TL decreased by 764, 63, and 2459 respectively, while the net short position of the TS increased by 221. [2] 3.2 CTD Bonds - The net prices of most CTD bonds increased, such as 220019.IB, 220017.IB, 230006.IB, etc., while the net price of 220022.IB decreased. [2] 3.3 Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of active treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 1.25bp, 0.50bp, 1.00bp, 0.25bp, and 0.25bp respectively. [2] 3.4 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 14.05bp, the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 0.20bp, the silver - pledged 7 - day rate decreased by 4.28bp, the Shibor 7 - day rate increased by 2.40bp, the silver - pledged 14 - day rate increased by 1.00bp, and the Shibor 14 - day rate increased by 1.10bp. The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged. [2] 3.5 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open market operations was 3799 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 6160 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations, with a net withdrawal of 2361 billion yuan. [2] 3.6 Industry News - From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 40203.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In July, the profit decreased by 1.5% year - on - year. At the end of July, the total assets of industrial enterprises above the designated size were 183.67 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the total liabilities were 106.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.1%; the owner's equity was 77.41 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.6%; the asset - liability ratio was 57.9%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2 percentage points. - Six departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real estate policies, including unlimited housing purchases outside the outer ring for eligible families, adjusting housing purchase restrictions for single adults, increasing the provident fund loan limit for green buildings by 15%, implementing the "withdrawal and loan" policy for provident funds, unifying mortgage rates for first and second - home purchases, and fine - tuning property tax collection policies. - The Deputy Minister of Commerce stated that the consumption pattern in China has shifted to a stage where commodity consumption and service consumption are equally important. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. [2] 3.7 Key Events to Watch - On August 28 at 17:00, the Eurozone's industrial sentiment index for August will be released. - On August 29 at 20:30, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index for July will be released. [3]
瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250827
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-27 09:29