建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250828

Report Overview - Report Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Eggs [1] Report Core View - The peak season for egg prices started late this year, and the market pressure became evident in late July. The supply pressure is significant, and the expected price rebound in August did not materialize. Near - month and main - contract futures prices have dropped significantly. It is not recommended to buy at the bottom currently. A rebound may occur after the increase in culling and the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day备货, but it is difficult to time. The overall egg market has an oversupply situation. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter if low egg prices affect subsequent replenishment, and short - term market fluctuations are large, so risk avoidance is advised [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The national egg price rose today. The average price in the main production areas was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin from yesterday, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.34 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin. The 2509 contract closed at 2896, down 18 (-0.62%), with a trading volume of 23,595 and an open interest of 37,187 (down 8,178). The 2510 contract closed at 2975, down 36 (-1.20%), with a trading volume of 554,418 and an open interest of 515,876 (up 44,842). The 2511 contract closed at 3028, down 28 (-0.92%), with a trading volume of 117,461 and an open interest of 216,611 (up 16,616) [7] - Operation Suggestions: Do not buy at the bottom currently. Wait for the increase in culling and the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day备货 to potentially drive a rebound, but it is difficult to time. Avoid risks in the short - term as the market has large fluctuations [8] 2. Industry News - In - production Laying Hens Inventory: As of the end of July, the national monthly inventory of in - production laying hens was about 1.356 billion, a 1.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year increase, showing a continuous upward trend for 7 months [9] - Chick Hatchling Volume: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, less than that in June and the same period in 2024, but still a moderately high monthly replenishment volume in the past 8 years. The decrease in July was the first year - on - year decrease this year [9] - Culling Situation: In the three weeks up to August 21, the national culling volume showed an upward trend. As of August 21, the average culling age was 500 days, 6 days earlier than last week and last month [10]