贵金属日评-20250828

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's concern about the loss of control over US fiscal and financial discipline has resurfaced. The Fed may restart the interest - rate cut process in September, with a relatively moderate pace. Gold's safe - haven demand is strongly boosted, and its volatility has increased while the medium - term upward trend remains intact. London gold is expected to trade in a wide range between $3120 - $3500 per ounce before rising again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - From late April to now, London gold has been trading in a wide range between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The reduction in international trade uncertainty weakens gold's safe - haven demand, but the restructuring of the international trade currency system and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations continue to support the gold price. The restructuring of the international trade currency system and the expected economic slowdown and central bank interest - rate cuts will support the long - and medium - term bull markets of gold. However, the high price and P/E ratio also mean increased volatility. In the short term, London gold will continue to consolidate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range. The central bank's easing expectations may support the silver price in the medium - to - short term. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and avoid full - position chasing or blind short - selling [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - Trump fired Fed Governor Cook on suspicion of mortgage law violations, and Cook vowed to fight back, which raised market concerns about the loss of control over US fiscal and financial discipline. The Fed may restart the interest - rate cut process in September, with a relatively moderate pace. London gold failed to break through the $3400 per ounce mark and then pulled back, but the support level in the pull - back is gradually rising. Trump's new policies are accelerating the restructuring of the global political and economic landscape, boosting gold's safe - haven demand. Gold's volatility has increased, and it is expected to trade in a wide range between $3120 - $3500 per ounce before rising again. This week, attention should be paid to Fed officials' statements, US July PCE prices, China's August PMI, and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - From late April to now, London gold has been trading in a wide range between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The reduction in international trade uncertainty weakens gold's safe - haven demand, but the restructuring of the international trade currency system and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations continue to support the gold price. In June, speculative funds flooded into the silver and platinum markets. In July, the silver price fluctuated significantly due to the expectation of anti - involution policies, and the London gold - silver ratio stabilized slightly after falling to 86. The restructuring of the international trade currency system and the expected economic slowdown and central bank interest - rate cuts will support the long - and medium - term bull markets of gold. However, the high price and P/E ratio also mean increased volatility. In the short term, London gold will continue to consolidate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range. The central bank's easing expectations may support the silver price in the medium - to - short term. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and avoid full - position chasing or blind short - selling [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T+D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Fed Governor Cook will sue to prevent Trump from firing her, which may lead to a long - term legal battle. Trump wants to quickly announce a candidate to replace Cook, with potential candidates including White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Milan and former World Bank President Malpass [17]. - US new orders for key capital goods in July increased more than expected, indicating strong business equipment spending at the beginning of the third quarter. However, consumers' assessment of the labor market has deteriorated, with the August consumer expectation for their job - seeking ability dropping to the lowest level in more than four years [17]. - Richmond Fed President Barkin predicts a moderate interest - rate adjustment, expecting no major changes in economic activity for the rest of the year [17].