建信期货原油日报-20250828

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core View - This year, the peak - season consumption in the US has no obvious improvement. The market has digested the US interest - rate cut expectation to some extent. There is no driving force for oil prices, which are expected to continue oscillating at the bottom and may fall again in the medium term [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI main contract: opened at 64.75 dollars/barrel, closed at 63.31 dollars/barrel, with a high of 64.76 dollars/barrel, a low of 63.13 dollars/barrel, a decline of 2.3%, and a trading volume of 18.38 million barrels [6] - Brent main contract: opened at 68.14 dollars/barrel, closed at 66.69 dollars/barrel, with a high of 68.16 dollars/barrel, a low of 66.6 dollars/barrel, a decline of 2.24%, and a trading volume of 28.51 million barrels [6] - SC main contract: opened at 491.7 yuan/barrel, closed at 479.7 yuan/barrel, with a high of 493.3 yuan/barrel, a low of 478 yuan/barrel, a decline of 3.62%, and a trading volume of 12.54 million barrels [6] - As of the week ending on the 15th, US crude inventories declined more than expected due to the recovery of crude exports, which reached 4.37 million barrels per day, a new high since April this year. However, refined - oil consumption remained weak, with gasoline apparent demand at 8.842 million barrels per day, showing a decline both year - on - year and month - on - month. Whether diesel demand can maintain its strength needs further attention [6] Group 5: Industry News - Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude prices to fall to just over $50 by the end of 2026 due to an expanding oil surplus next year [8] - Facing approaching US tariffs, India plans to reduce Russian oil purchases [8] - Russia plans to increase oil exports by 200,000 barrels per day in August despite refinery shutdowns, but there is uncertainty in the export plan due to continuous drone attacks and maintenance work [8] - Kpler data shows that Iran's average daily crude exports in August are about 1.5 million barrels, down from 1.7 million barrels during March - May [8] - According to Reuters' calculation, Ukrainian attacks have disrupted at least 17% of Russia's refining capacity [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including WTI spot price, Oman spot price, Brent fund net position, Dtd Brent price, etc., with data sources from wind, CFTC, Bloomberg, and EIA [11][13][14]