建信期货集运指数日报-20250828

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the SCFIS dropped below 2000 points, marking six consecutive weeks of decline. However, the downward trend of online quotes has stabilized. Some shipping companies have announced price increases for September, indicating a willingness to support prices. Considering the uncertainty of tariffs and the high level of supply during the off - season, demand is unlikely to improve significantly this year, and freight rates may show a more pronounced off - season pattern. The short - term decline in futures may narrow, but in the long run, it may still show a downward trend. It is recommended to short the October contract on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Situation: The SCFIS has fallen below 2000 points for six consecutive weeks, but the decline of online quotes has stabilized. Some shipping companies' September freight rates are higher than those at the end of August, showing a willingness to support prices. Demand is hard to improve significantly due to tariff uncertainties, and supply is at a relatively high level during the off - season. The current main October contract has a deep discount, and the decline in spot freight rates has slowed down, so the short - term decline in futures may narrow. In the long run, it may still decline [8]. - Operation Suggestion: Short the October contract on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - Overall Market: From August 18th to 22nd, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, but the supply - demand fundamentals were weak. Most route freight rates declined, and the comprehensive index continued to adjust [9]. - European Routes: In August, the eurozone's composite PMI rose to 51.1, better than expected. However, due to US tariff policies, foreign orders in the eurozone's manufacturing industry declined for the second consecutive month. On August 22nd, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1668/TEU, a decrease of 8.4% from the previous period [9]. - Mediterranean Routes: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, and the spot booking price continued to fall. On August 22nd, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2225/TEU, a decrease of 2.4% from the previous period [9]. - North American Routes: As of the week ending August 16th, the number of initial and continued unemployment claims in the US increased, indicating a cooling labor market. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports on August 22nd were $1644/FEU and $2613/FEU respectively, down 6.5% and 3.9% from the previous period [10]. - Tariff News: Trump announced a "major" tariff investigation on imported furniture in the US, which will be completed within 50 days. New tariffs on imported furniture may further impact the industry that has already been affected by other tariffs [10]. - Geopolitical News: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu approved the plan to capture Gaza City, and the Israeli army is deploying troops. Trump expressed full support for Israel's military goal [10]. 3. Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices - European Routes: On August 25th, the SCFIS for European basic ports was 1990.2 points, a decrease of 8.7% from August 18th [12]. - US West Routes: On August 25th, the SCFIS for US West basic ports was 1041.38 points, a decrease of 5.9% from August 18th [12]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Provided the trading data of container shipping European line futures on August 27th, including contract information such as EC2510, EC2512, etc., covering opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. - Shipping - Related Data Charts - Included charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][20]