建信期货铜期货日报-20250828

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The report maintains the judgment that copper prices are prone to rise and difficult to fall, and the support level is raised to 78,500 yuan [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper market fluctuated, with the closing price remaining unchanged at 79,190 yuan compared to the previous day. The 09 - 10 spread on the disk turned positive to 10. The spot price dropped 40 to 79,545 yuan, and the spot premium rose 40 to 170 yuan. The scarcity of high - quality copper drove up the premium. The spot import profit was 160 yuan, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.09. The LME 0 - 3 contango structure widened to 85. The demand for Yangshan copper was average, and the warehouse receipts and bills of lading remained flat. The current tight domestic spot situation persists. The opening of the import window attracted the transfer of LME inventory to the domestic market. The LME inventory increased by 1,100 tons to 156,100 tons compared to the previous day. The inventory accumulation in the LME in August was lower than expected. With the arrival of the domestic peak season in September, the low inventory strongly supports copper prices [10]. 2. Industry News - Zijin Mining's 2025 semi - annual report disclosed on the evening of August 26 showed that the company's mineral copper production reached 570,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%; mineral gold production was 41 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16%; mineral silver was 224 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%; mineral zinc (lead) was 200,000 tons, equivalent lithium carbonate was 7,315 tons; iron concentrate was 1.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 58.0%; mine - produced molybdenum was 5,879 tons, tungsten was 2,137 tons, and cobalt was 30 tons [11]. - On August 26, foreign media reported that despite the encouragement of Trump administration officials, Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd., the operating company behind the controversial Pebble copper mine in Alaska, had not submitted a revised proposal to remove the obstacles to the stalled copper - gold project. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) stated in an online status update on Monday that Northern Dynasty Minerals had not advanced "updated submission materials" for its proposed Pebble mine project, adding that "the agency has not received any relevant documents at present." This latest news came after the US Department of Justice decided last month to effectively uphold the veto of the project, shattering the hope of the Trump administration to remove regulatory obstacles [11]. - Industry online data showed that in July 2025, China's household air - conditioner production was 1.6115 million units, unchanged year - on - year; sales were 1.6437 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The domestic and export markets of household air - conditioners presented a distinct differentiation pattern. The domestic sales scale was 1.0583 million units, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%; the export scale was 0.5854 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 15.5% [11][12]