建信期货铁矿石日评-20250828

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 27, the iron ore futures main contract 2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 775.5 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The accident at the SimFer mine in Guinea had a limited impact, and the production is expected to resume soon. The short - term bullish sentiment has faded [7][10][11]. - Fundamentally, the supply of iron ore has a slightly rising trend, and the subsequent arrivals may show a pattern of low first and high later. The demand side remains strong, but the profit of steel production has declined, and the 9.3 limit - production may affect both terminal demand and blast - furnace demand. The market is worried about the potential weakening of demand in the future [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Review - On August 27, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract oscillated weakly, opening at 776 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 781.5 yuan/ton and a low of 773 yuan/ton, and closing at 775.5 yuan/ton, down 0.64% [7]. - The prices of major iron ore outer - market quotes remained flat on August 27 compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 3 - 5 yuan/ton [9]. - The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to rise, and the green column of the daily MACD indicator has narrowed for 3 consecutive trading days [9]. - Outlook - The accident at the SimFer mine in Guinea had a limited impact, and the production is expected to resume soon. The short - term bullish sentiment has faded [10][11]. - Supply: The weekly shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil increased slightly last week, with a significant increase in Australian shipments and a decline in Brazilian shipments. The total shipments in the past four weeks increased by 1.8% compared with the previous four weeks. Considering the shipping time, the subsequent arrivals may be low first and high later [11]. - Demand: The production enthusiasm of enterprises remains high, and the molten iron output has increased for two consecutive weeks, remaining above 2.4 million tons. Regarding the 9.3 limit - production, according to Mysteel's survey, most steel mills received oral notices of environmental protection limit - production, mainly for sintering machines with a 30% - 40% reduction. Only 13 steel mills said that blast - furnace production was restricted. The steel production profit has declined recently, which may affect future production enthusiasm [11]. - Downstream: The demand for steel products recovered last week, but its sustainability needs to be observed. Considering the possible phased suspension of infrastructure projects in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region before September 3, a cautious attitude is recommended, and the demand may weaken again [11]. 3.2 Industry News - On August 25, 2025, the Australian Anti - Dumping Commission announced the postponement of the release of the basic fact report and final recommendation of the anti - dumping sunset review investigation on imported wire rods from China. The basic fact report is expected to be completed no later than December 10, 2025, and the final report will be submitted to the Australian Minister of Industry and Science no later than February 23, 2026 [13]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to iron ore and steel, including prices, shipments, arrivals, inventory, production capacity utilization, and consumption, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of CCB Futures [17][24][40]