芳烃橡胶早报-20250828

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - PTA: With an increase in unexpected TA maintenance, a continuous rise in polyester operation, and relatively healthy inventory levels offering room for further load - increase, while the supply of raw material PX gradually returns, the near - term supply - demand pattern of TA is expected to continue improving. Attention should be paid to opportunities for expanding processing margins at low prices and the restart progress of Hengli Huizhou [3]. - MEG: The EG operation rate has risen to a relatively high level. Due to low short - term arrivals, port inventory is expected to remain low. The current situation is favorable with decent margins. However, in the far - month, there are expectations of inventory accumulation due to the resumption of maintenance and the commissioning of new plants. The valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, so it should be viewed as a wide - range fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun [4]. - Polyester Short Fiber: As the de - stocking speed of polyester yarn products has accelerated, the demand for restocking has emerged. Although the short - fiber operation rate remains high, there is no significant increase. With the continuation of de - stocking, attention should be paid to opportunities for expanding processing margins at low prices [4]. - Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber: The national explicit inventory remains stable at a non - high absolute level but shows no seasonal de - stocking. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber has rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Market Changes: From August 21 - 27, 2025, the PTA spot price and related indicators fluctuated. The PTA spot transaction had an average daily transaction basis of 2509(+20). The PTA device saw the new 160 - million - ton line of Sanfangxiang's new device start production, and Dushan Energy's 2.5 - million - ton device undergo maintenance [3]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Near - end TA maintenance increased, leading to a significant decline in operation. Polyester load continued to rise, inventory decreased month - on - month, the basis strengthened slightly, and spot processing margins improved. The domestic PX operation rate increased slightly, overseas plants restarted, and the operation rate rebounded significantly. PXN strengthened month - on - month, disproportionation benefits weakened, and isomerization benefits reached a high level. The trans - shipment volume of aromatics between the US and Asia was low [3]. MEG - Price and Market Changes: From August 21 - 27, 2025, prices of Northeast Asian ethylene, MEG external and internal markets, and other related prices changed slightly. The MEG spot transaction had a basis of around +58 against 01. The Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton plant restarted, and Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton plant underwent maintenance [4]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Near - end domestic oil - based plants restarted, coal - based operation decreased slightly, and the overall load increased. With a decline in arrivals and stable shipments during the week, port inventory decreased. Downstream stocking levels remained stable, the basis remained strong, and the profit - to - cost ratio was basically stable month - on - month [4]. Polyester Short Fiber - Price and Market Changes: As of August 27, 2025, the spot price was around 6589, and the market basis was around - 80 against 10 [4]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Near - end plants such as Chuzhou Xingbang and Ningbo Zhuocheng increased their loads, and the operation rate slightly rose to 91.9%. Production and sales were basically stable, and inventory decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn increased, raw material stocking rose, finished product inventory continued to decrease, and margins were weak [4]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - Price and Market Changes: From August 21 - 27, 2025, prices of various rubber products such as US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber, Thai mixed rubber, and domestic rubber products fluctuated. There were also changes in prices of Thai glue, cup - lump rubber, and other related products [4]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: The national explicit inventory remained stable at a non - high absolute level but did not show seasonal de - stocking. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [4]. Styrene - Price and Market Changes: From August 21 - 27, 2025, prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and related downstream products such as EPS changed. For example, the price of pure benzene (East China) decreased by 45, and the price of styrene (Jiangsu) decreased by 85 on August 27 compared to the previous day [7]. - Profit Analysis: The domestic profit of styrene, EPS, PS, and other products also changed. For instance, the domestic profit of EPS increased by 80 on August 27 compared to the previous day [7].