LPG早报-20250828

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - PG futures fluctuated strongly due to the rebound of spot prices and the increase in import costs. The cheapest deliverable was East China domestic gas at 4398. The basis weakened to 520 (-19), the September - October spread was -509 (-38), and the October - November spread was 80 (+0). The number of registered warehouse receipts was 12887 (-1). The external market prices strengthened slightly, and the internal - external price difference fluctuated [1]. - On Wednesday, the cheapest deliverable was East China domestic gas at 4405. FEI and CP followed crude oil and fell sharply, PP declined, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP strengthened. The production cost of CP was lower than that of FEI. The PG futures weakened, the September - October spread was -537 (+23), and the October - November spread was 93 (+2). The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1]. - Fundamentally, port supply and demand both decreased, and inventory remained basically flat. Refinery commercial volume increased by 1.94%, but due to the recovery of demand in many places, refinery inventory decreased. PDH operating rate was 75.66% (-0.67pct), and it was expected that the load of multiple units would increase next week. The alkylation operating rate was 51.42% (-0.67pct), and the operating rate was expected to increase next week. The MTBE operating rate was 63.54% (+0.15pct). The combustion off - season was gradually coming to an end. East China was the cheapest delivery area, with limited expected supply from local refineries and a decrease in expected arrivals. Although the temperature was still high on the demand side, there was an expectation of improvement, and the overall situation was expected to be stable [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - From August 21 - 27, 2025, prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, Shandong ether - post carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil fluctuated. For example, South China LPG prices ranged from 4490 to 4610, and East China LPG prices were around 4398 - 4405 [1]. - MB propane spot prices were around 568 - 577, CP forecast prices were around 530 - 546, and paper import profits were around 69 - 70 [1]. Spread and Basis - The 09 - 10 spread was -537 (+23) on Wednesday and -509 (-38) previously; the 10 - 11 spread was 93 (+2) on Wednesday and 80 (+0) previously. The basis weakened to 520 (-19) [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of registered warehouse receipts was 12887 (-1), with changes in different companies such as Qingdao Yunda (-70), Wuzhong Group (-42), Donghua (+450), and Jinneng (-339) [1]. External Market and Freight - External market prices strengthened slightly. The PG - CP spread was 22 (+0.7), the PG - FEI spread was 5 (-4.6), and the FEI - CP spread was 17 (+5.25). FEI offshore and CP on - shore discounts strengthened. The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 145 (-3), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 80 (-6). The FEI - MOPJ spread was -46 (-5) [1]. Profit and Operating Rates - The profit of PP made from FEI and CP strengthened, and the production cost of CP was lower than that of FEI. PDH - made propylene gross profit strengthened, PDH - made PP spot profit weakened, and paper profit fluctuated. The alkylated oil production gross profit increased slightly, and the MTBE gross profit changed little [1]. - PDH operating rate was 75.66% (-0.67pct), the alkylation operating rate was 51.42% (-0.67pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 63.54% (+0.15pct) [1]