永安期货有色早报-20250828

Group 1: Copper - The risk appetite sentiment continued to rise this week. Although domestic economic and financial data were poor, the stock market sentiment remained high. The downstream orders were verified to have support around 7.8, and the copper rod开工率 showed resilience at the end of the off - season. The scrap - refined substitution effect was evident. The domestic tax subsidy policy for scrap copper might be restricted. In August, a small inventory build - up was expected under full supply, but the market might focus on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1] Group 2: Aluminum - From January to June, aluminum ingot imports increased supply. In August, demand was in the seasonal off - season, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late months. Aluminum product exports improved month - on - month, while photovoltaic demand declined, and overseas demand dropped significantly. An inventory build - up was expected in August. In the short - term off - season, attention should be paid to demand. In the low - inventory pattern, attention should be paid to far - month spreads and reverse arbitrage between domestic and overseas markets [1][2] Group 3: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, domestic TC had difficulty rising, while imported TC increased. In August, smelting output increased. Overseas, the mine output in the second quarter exceeded expectations, and zinc ore imports in July were over 500,000 tons, the highest in nearly three years. On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience; overseas, European demand was average, and some smelters had production resistance due to processing fees. Domestic social inventory increased, and overseas LME inventory decreased rapidly. In the short - term, zinc prices were expected to rebound, and it was recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, a short - position configuration was suggested. Long - short arbitrage between domestic and overseas markets could be continued, and positive spreads between months could be noted [5] Group 4: Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, while demand was weak overall, and the premium was stable recently. Domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remained unchanged. In the short - term, the fundamental situation was average, and the macro - environment was mainly about anti - involution policy games. The opportunity to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio could continue to be monitored [6] Group 5: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, some steel mills cut production passively, and some in the north were affected by the military parade. On the demand side, it was mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking increased due to the macro - environment. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remained stable. Inventories in Xifu decreased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The fundamentals were generally weak, and short - term macro - factors followed anti - involution expectations. Attention should be paid to future policy directions [6] Group 6: Lead - This week, lead prices fluctuated. On the supply side, the scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and the supply of scrap batteries was tight. The recycling volume of recyclers was low, and the TC quotation was in a mess. On the demand side, the battery finished - product inventory was high, and the battery operating rate increased this week, but the market was not prosperous in the peak season. The refined - scrap price difference was +25, and the LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 10,000 tons. In August, primary supply was expected to increase, and recycled lead production might decrease. Demand improved slightly, but the inventory was still expected to be at a high level. Lead prices were expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation next week [8] Group 7: Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fee for tin ore was at a low level, and some domestic smelters cut production. Yunnan smelters would start maintenance in early September. Overseas, there were signals of production resumption in Wa State, but large - scale exports were difficult before October. African tin ore might increase in the long - term but was unstable in the short - term. There was a risk of mine inspections in Indonesia. On the demand side, the demand for solder was limited, and the terminal electronic consumption had peak - season expectations, but the photovoltaic growth rate was expected to decline. Domestic inventory decreased slightly, and overseas consumption was strong. The domestic fundamentals were in a short - term supply - demand double - weak situation. Attention should be paid to the possible supply - demand mismatch from September to October and the impact of interest - rate cut expectations on non - ferrous metals. In the short - term, it was recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it was advisable to hold positions near the cost line when the price was low [11] Group 8: Industrial Silicon - The resumption of production in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan was slower than expected. In August, there was a small inventory reduction. The core of supply - demand balance was the resumption rhythm of Hesheng. In the short - term, if Hesheng's eastern production remained around 40 units, the supply - demand balance would be tight. In the long - term, the industrial silicon production capacity was still in serious over - supply, and the operating rate was low, so the price would fluctuate at the cycle bottom [14] Group 9: Lithium Carbonate - This week, the futures price fluctuated greatly due to the expected production resumption of salt lakes and mica mines. On the spot side, the peak - season effect was obvious, and the downstream procurement volume increased. The core contradiction of lithium carbonate was that under the background of over - supply in the long - term, the resource side faced periodic compliance disturbances. In the current peak - season approaching, the monthly balance turned to continuous inventory reduction after the production cut of CATL's smelters, and the price elasticity was large when supply - side disturbances were hyped up [16]